I do not know why people spend hours in their bedrooms putting together lip-sync video productions. But they are funny to watch. I have just spent the last hour with my children absolutely laughing our guts out over what can be found at Google video.
| The best (press the play button to see it) [link] |
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| Second place [Link] |
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| Third place [Link] |
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What is happening in Tasmania? Today’s Sunday Examiner EMRS phone survey showed a strong swing back to Labor. State wide, Labor has lifted its support since the February EMRS poll from 40 to 44 per cent. The Liberals slipped from 33 per cent to 28 per cent. Support for the Greens fell from 22 per cent to 18 per cent. Undecided voters were at just 10 per cent.
When undecided votes were excluded the percentages were Labor 48, Liberal 31, the Greens 20 and others one.
While it is a close call, and difficult to prognosticate through the intricacies of the Hare-Clark system, on balance the pollster predicted that Labor would secure 13 seats, the Liberals would secure eight seats and the Greens four. Thirteen seats for Labor would yield a one seat majority and government in its own right.
This morning, Centrebet had its best odds for Labor since the election campaign started. Labor is on $3.25 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.28 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probabilities are 28 and 72 per cent respectively.
Yesterday’s Morgan poll gave a headline, two-party preferred, national vote prediction of 50 per cent for the Coalition and 50 per cent for Labor. The primary vote predictions were 43 per cent for the Coalition and 39.5 per cent for Labor.
By my rules of thumb, if Labor is polling less than 40 per cent of the primary vote and the Coalition is polling more than 42 per cent, I would put the Coalition ahead.
The other interesting trend over the past 3 months has been the increasing propensity of those polled to think the Coalition will win the next election.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
In related news, Centrebet now has the Coalition on $1.60 and Labor on $2.20. (It was $1.65 and $2.10 only 24 hours ago). Over the same period, the odds on the end of Howard’s reign have lengthened for 2006, and shortened on 2009 or later. The usual betting market graphs are here.
The latest word (dated 9 March) from Gerard Daffy at Centrebet is:
Our market on when John Howard will relinquish power certainly sparked plenty of discussion, with the PM himself getting involved in the betting angle.
He was asked on ‘The 7.30 Report’ about the heavy backing for 2006 to be the year that he would walk away and the PM virtually fobbed that off, so we have wound the price back out.
To date, nearly $2500 has been placed on 2006 being the year, which was backed from an opening quote of 7.00 into 4.00 at one stage but has now eased back out to 5.00 following heavy betting for a couple of other options.
While two of the people who bet on 2006 have a fine record of winning on political betting, there is another with a similar record who has single-handedly backed ‘2009 and beyond’ from 6.50 into 3.75.
To add further to the intrigue surrounding this market, we have also taken bets of $5000 and $4000 for 2007 to be the year, which in all probability will be the election year. So after all of that, Mr Howard can do us a favour if he decides to stay at the Lodge until 2008, providing of course he wins the election.
The odds on the 2007 Federal election outcome have been remarkably stable since the beginning of the year. While they were quite volatile during the passage of the industrial relations legislation in the last quarter of 2005, they have been surprisingly unaffected by the Cole inquiry into the AWB in 2006.
The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.8 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election (unchanged on last week).
The odds on when Howard’s reign will end as Prime Minister are:
The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
The odds for the New South Wales 2007 election are now even, paying $1.85 for both Labor and the Coalition.
For the Tasmanian state election, Centrebet has Labor on $4.50 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.16 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probabilities are 20 and 80 per cent respectively. This is the fifth day at these odds.
For the South Australian election, Centrebet has Labor on $1.01 to win 24 or more seats (ie. majority government). Centrebet would pay $12 if Labor won less than 24 seats. The implied probabilities are 92.2 and 7.8 per cent respectively. This is the tenth day at these odds.
The five polls published in February 2006 all had Labor ahead in terms of the predicted national two-party preferred vote share. The aggregated poll for February, across 6791 respondents, yielded a national two-party preferred prediction of 51.9 per cent for Labor, and 48.1 per cent for the Coalition.
The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.