Oz Politics Blog

Today’s Morgan poll continued the all-poll trend since November 2005 of a swing back towards the Coalition. The headline result was a predicted national, two-party preferred vote of 51 per cent for the Coalition to 49 per cent for the Opposition.

The other interesting statistic: almost 7 out of 10 people now think the Coalition will win the 2007 Federal election.

According to Morgan’s qualitative polling …

L-NP supporters continued to be impressed with John Howard’s strong leadership of the party and the stability that has come with it. Common themes among the responses included: “I think John Howard is doing a good job. I think we have come a long way and I don’t like or trust Kim Beazley”, “Better leadership and direction with my choice. Other side doesn’t have strong leadership and doesn’t seem to have much of an alternative” and “At the moment Beazley is not ready. Howard is doing a good job.”

It is widely felt by L-NP supporters that the Opposition lacks credibility, which was most recently evident by the public spat between rival party factions: “The ALP is in such total disarray”, “In regard to terrorism I feel safe with the L-NP. The ALP is totally disorganised” and “The ALP is too wishy-washy. They have no projects. They are dictated to by unions. They have no foresight in administration.”

Conversely, ALP supporters continue to be concerned with, and alienated by, recent Government policy: “Ever since the GST and other policies we are working harder and harder and not getting anywhere”, “I am concerned about the Government regarding IR policy and the direction they are leading Australia (US Alliance)” and “The Government is getting too comfortable. They need to be listening to people rather than driving their own policies.”

The social policies and working-class roots of the ALP also appealed to many voters. Comments included: “They (ALP) are more approachable and come to the people to check ideas and attitudes”, “Out of the two major parties the ALP is the one that aligns itself best with my social conscience. This country is becoming more about those that have and those that haven’t and the Labor Party have the most potential to reduce that ever-widening gap” and “Their (ALP) policies are in line with my world view — social equality, social capital and infrastructure development. The ALP’s more about our society, cohesion.”

The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.