Weekly betting market update

Bryan · Monday 13 March 2006 · 8:01 am

Federal

Labor’s implosion over the last week has seen two bookies downgrade its chances. The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 55.6 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election (up on 54.8 per cent last week).

  • For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.60 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.20 (was $1.65 and $2.10 last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 57.9 per cent
  • For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.75 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.05 (unchanged on last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.9 per cent
  • SportingBet is paying $1.70 for a Coalition win and $2.05 for a Labor win (was $1.73 and $2.00 last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 54.7 per cent
  • SportsBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.10 for a Labor win (unchanged). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.7 per cent

This morning, Centrebet did not have odds on when Howard’s reign will end as Prime Minister. The most recent odds I have are from yesterday.

  • 2006 — $5.00 — yielding an implied probability of 17.6 per cent
  • 2007 — $2.50 — 35.2 per cent
  • 2008 — $4.00 — 22.0 per cent
  • 2009 or later — $3.50 — 25.2 per cent

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Tasmania

The punter’s reappraisal of Lennon’s chance of winning majority government continues. For the Tasmanian state election this coming Saturday, Centrebet has Labor on $3.00 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.36 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probabilities are 31 and 69 per cent respectively. These are the best odds for Labor since the campaign started.

Derived probabilities from Centrebet odds for the 2006 Tasmanian state election

South Australia

For the South Australian election this coming Saturday, Centrebet has Labor on $1.01 to win 24 or more seats (ie. majority government). Centrebet would pay $12 if Labor won less than 24 seats. The implied probabilities are 92.2 and 7.8 per cent respectively.

Derived probabilities from Centrebet odds for the 2006 South Australian state election

New South Wales

The odds for the New South Wales 2007 election unchanged on last week, paying $1.85 for both Labor and the Coalition.

Tasmania · SA · NSW · Betting market ·