Tasmanian turnaround
What is happening in Tasmania? Today’s Sunday Examiner EMRS phone survey showed a strong swing back to Labor. State wide, Labor has lifted its support since the February EMRS poll from 40 to 44 per cent. The Liberals slipped from 33 per cent to 28 per cent. Support for the Greens fell from 22 per cent to 18 per cent. Undecided voters were at just 10 per cent.
When undecided votes were excluded the percentages were Labor 48, Liberal 31, the Greens 20 and others one.
While it is a close call, and difficult to prognosticate through the intricacies of the Hare-Clark system, on balance the pollster predicted that Labor would secure 13 seats, the Liberals would secure eight seats and the Greens four. Thirteen seats for Labor would yield a one seat majority and government in its own right.
This morning, Centrebet had its best odds for Labor since the election campaign started. Labor is on $3.25 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.28 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probabilities are 28 and 72 per cent respectively.
