Morgan: 50-50 even (or is it?)
Yesterday’s Morgan poll gave a headline, two-party preferred, national vote prediction of 50 per cent for the Coalition and 50 per cent for Labor. The primary vote predictions were 43 per cent for the Coalition and 39.5 per cent for Labor.
By my rules of thumb, if Labor is polling less than 40 per cent of the primary vote and the Coalition is polling more than 42 per cent, I would put the Coalition ahead.
The other interesting trend over the past 3 months has been the increasing propensity of those polled to think the Coalition will win the next election.
The usual opinion poll graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.
In related news, Centrebet now has the Coalition on $1.60 and Labor on $2.20. (It was $1.65 and $2.10 only 24 hours ago). Over the same period, the odds on the end of Howard’s reign have lengthened for 2006, and shortened on 2009 or later. The usual betting market graphs are here.
The latest word (dated 9 March) from Gerard Daffy at Centrebet is:
Our market on when John Howard will relinquish power certainly sparked plenty of discussion, with the PM himself getting involved in the betting angle.
He was asked on ‘The 7.30 Report’ about the heavy backing for 2006 to be the year that he would walk away and the PM virtually fobbed that off, so we have wound the price back out.
To date, nearly $2500 has been placed on 2006 being the year, which was backed from an opening quote of 7.00 into 4.00 at one stage but has now eased back out to 5.00 following heavy betting for a couple of other options.
While two of the people who bet on 2006 have a fine record of winning on political betting, there is another with a similar record who has single-handedly backed ‘2009 and beyond’ from 6.50 into 3.75.
To add further to the intrigue surrounding this market, we have also taken bets of $5000 and $4000 for 2007 to be the year, which in all probability will be the election year. So after all of that, Mr Howard can do us a favour if he decides to stay at the Lodge until 2008, providing of course he wins the election.