Weekly betting market update

Bryan · Monday 6 March 2006 · 6:09 am

Federal

The odds on the 2007 Federal election outcome have been remarkably stable since the beginning of the year. While they were quite volatile during the passage of the industrial relations legislation in the last quarter of 2005, they have been surprisingly unaffected by the Cole inquiry into the AWB in 2006.

The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.8 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election (unchanged on last week).

  • For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.65 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.10 (unchanged on last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.0 per cent
  • For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.75 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.05 (unchanged on last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.9 per cent
  • SportingBet is paying $1.73 for a Coalition win and $2.00 for a Labor win (unchanged on last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.6 per cent
  • SportsBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.10 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.7 per cent

The odds on when Howard’s reign will end as Prime Minister are:

  • 2006 — $4.25 — yielding an implied probability of 20.7 per cent
  • 2007 — $2.50 — 35.2 per cent
  • 2008 — $4.25 — 20.7 per cent
  • 2009 or later — $3.75 — 23.4 per cent

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

New South Wales

The odds for the New South Wales 2007 election are now even, paying $1.85 for both Labor and the Coalition.

Tasmania

For the Tasmanian state election, Centrebet has Labor on $4.50 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.16 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probabilities are 20 and 80 per cent respectively. This is the fifth day at these odds.

Derived probabilities from Centrebet odds for the 2006 Tasmanian state election

South Australia

For the South Australian election, Centrebet has Labor on $1.01 to win 24 or more seats (ie. majority government). Centrebet would pay $12 if Labor won less than 24 seats. The implied probabilities are 92.2 and 7.8 per cent respectively. This is the tenth day at these odds.

Derived probabilities from Centrebet odds for the 2006 South Australian state election

Betting market · NSW · SA · Tasmania ·