Following the Julian McGauran defection, Anthony Green has two longish pieces on the National Party.
One’s a slight update of a book chapter from a couple of years ago. More political science than journalism, but reasonably accessible.
The second catalogues all the seats they have lost around the country in the last 25 years, as well as detail on the rise of Independents.
Anthony told me that he hopes to have a Tasmanian election site up next week as well.
Morgan has released its poll results from 1033 voters over the weekend of 4-5 February. The headline result is a national predicted two-party preferred vote of 52.5 per cent for Labor and 47.5 for the Coalition. Such a vote would see a Labor Government installed in Canberra.
The primary vote shares are as follows:
The pollster’s interpretation:
“The continuing scandal surrounding AWB’s grain deals with Iraq has taken its toll on the L-NP with primary support down 1.5% to 40.5%. A special Morgan Poll to be released tomorrow will show that most people who have an opinion believed the Government did not act ethically. This will not provide happy reading for the Howard Government.
“The infighting between Coalition partners the National Party and Liberal Party has not helped matters. Meanwhile primary support for the ALP has risen sharply up 4% to 42% in a week.
“The ALP would have won an election had it been held last weekend, with the ALP receiving 52.5% of the ‘two-party’ preferred vote if preferences were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election.â€
I am often at a loss when it comes to commenting on Morgan. I do not believe that voting intention is as volatile as suggested by the polls. And Morgan’s practice of breaking its fortnightly reporting cycle when it gets a significant movement in a week only adds to the volatility in its series.
While I think the AWB saga is a first rate commercial scandal, for me at least, it appears a way off being a political scandal. Hence, I do not believe it would have driven voting intention by as much as reported. My usual fallback in these circumstances is to say lets wait and see what the next poll says — it will be Newspoll on Tuesday.
As foreshadowed in the above quote, Morgan published survey results on the AWB oil-for-food scandal. These results are a little confusing. The tables report 50 per cent believe the AWB acted unethically, 12 per cent believe AWB acted ethically, and 38 per cent are undecided. However, in the text, Morgan said,
Fifty-six percent of Australians think the Government acted unethically in its role in the scandal, 3% more than the 53% who believe AWB Ltd. acted unethically! Opinions matter — the number of people who say AWB Ltd. acted ethically is 13% with 34% undecided.
Regardless of which is the correct statistic, I am little surprised that more people think the Government has acted unethically than think the AWB has. Perhaps we live in a society where it is okay to do wrong, when it is for a good cause (the farmers), and as long as you don’t get caught.
On the Muhammad cartoons, Morgan found 62 per cent of Australians believe the cartoons should not be published in Australia. By some coincidence, the same proportion thought the ‘abortion pill’ RU486 should be made available to Australian women.
The Australian Electoral Commission has launched a periodical, The Tally Board, with information for the psephologically inclined on AEC programs, activities and electoral issues. Key information items in the first edition include:
There was no movement in the betting market over the last week. The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 55.0 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election.
Good news. “Nude images of Michelle Leslie” is no longer the leading search term that brings people here. Now it is the 12 cartoons of Muhammad (also known as Muhamad and Mohammed) originally published in a Danish newspaper, Morgenavisen Jyllands-Posten, on 30 September last year.
Since I have not blogged on this topic, I suspect the same mechanism was at work. Random words on my blog or news feed pages are picked up by google. After a few search hits, the phrase gets on to my site stats page, which is subsequently picked up by google as well. This is one of the problems of dynamic computer generated content.
Unlike nude images of Leslie, this issue touches on a number of grand political themes: censorship, freedom of speech, freedom of religious expression, civility, multiculturalism, tolerance, not to mention international relations. It also raises questions about accuracy in reporting. According to the international media, SBS reported that one of the twelve cartoons shows a pig-snouted Mohammed. However, that cartoon was one of three added to the series on some Internet sites by unknown people, to make the series more provocative. It was not in the original series.
Wikipedia has an excellent overview of the controversy.
I found myself in complete agreement with this statement by EU Commissioner Franco Frattini.
“As European Commissioner responsible for integration policy as well as the promotion and respect of fundamental rights, integrating communities with different religions, cultures and political affiliations is an objective that I strive for in my everyday activities. This is an objective that flows from the liberal principles that govern the European Union and its institutions, and indeed the life and history of our continent. I can understand the feelings of indignation, frustration and sadness of the Muslim communities over the last few days as they viewed the cartoons published by a Danish newspaper. Such events do not facilitate dialogue between faiths and cultures and provide barriers to the integration process to which the Member States of the Union are committed.
“However, one of the founding principles of our Europe is freedom of expression, including the right to criticize.
“A difference of opinion, even if it is bitter and disrespectful, often feeds into free polemic debate, in which satire plays a full part. We often discuss matters, sometimes passionately or even rudely, not only in our Parliaments or in the press, but in all manner of public arenas. This is the rule now, replacing armed and violent conflict, using words and ideas to create a society bound by the rule of law.
“It is my duty to enter this debate to remind us all that there are delicate issues, particularly in relation to religion and those ideals that are sacred to us. Consequently, I personally regard the publication of the cartoons as somewhat imprudent, even if the satire used was aimed at a distorted interpretation of religion, such as that used by terrorists to recruit young people to their cause and turning them into fanatics, sometimes to the point of sending them into action as suicide bombers.
“However, I am not offering these common-sense remarks with even the remotest intention of justifying the reactions that are currently being expressed against Denmark and others, including the European Union. Quite the contrary, it should be crystal clear to all that violence, intimidation and the calls for boycotts or for restraints on the freedom of the press are completely unacceptable and will not bring about a constructive discussion between communities. Indeed, no dialogue is possible with those who would threaten fundamental human rights, nor with those who would resort to terror. The fact is that deprivation of freedom has always generated suffering and sorrow, so we must defend freedom even when that means letting those we disagree with have their say. Preserving freedom is the foundation for dialogue.”
Links: The Purple Rodeo, MGK, Club Troppo, Alert and alarmed, Irf, Week by Week, Dog Fight, Mr Lefty, Guy, Tim Blair, Catallaxy,
Comments policy: I have sought advice (from someone whose ethical integrity I respect) about the uninformed and sometimes racist comments this post has attracted. My ethicist advised me to delete the stereotyped, uniformed and polemical. Free speech comes with the responsibility of wise use. I have followed his advice. If people are going to sledge others, they can find another venue. I am happy to keep comments that are well argued. But the mindless anti-Dane, anti-Westerner and anti-Islam comments have been and will be deleted. No correspondence will be entered into in respect of my deletions.
Update 13 February 2006: comments have been suspended.