Centrebet has opened a new book on the South Australian election. It opened with Labor on $1.03 to achieve majority government with 24 or more seats. This equates to a 91 per cent probability.
The odds for the Tasmanian election continue to close. Labor is now on $5.00 to win majority government with 13 or more seats, which equates to a 19 per cent probability.
The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.8 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election. Notwithstanding the minor movement from one bookmaker, this result is essentially unchanged from last week.
For the Tasmanian state election, Centrebet has Labor on $6.00 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.09 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probability is 15 and 85 per cent respectively. This is an improvement for Labor, which was at 10 per cent on Saturday.
Centrebet’s odds for the winner of the South Australian seat of Norwood are unchanged since Saturday. This is Labor’s most marginal seat in the 18 March state election. Centrebet is paying $1.14 if Labor wins, five dollars if the Liberals win, $101 if Family First wins, $151 if the Greens win, and $151 if the Australian Democrats win.
Today Centrebet did not post odds on the 2007 NSW election. Also, Sportingbet did not post odds on the the Liberal leadership at the time of the 2007 Federal election.
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Centrebet is paying $1.04 if Labor wins fewer than 13 seats in Tasmania, and $9.00 if Labor wins 13 seats or more. In short, the punters believe that Labor has a ten per cent chance of securing majority government in Tasmania at the 18th of March election. Update 19 February at 10am: The odds are now $1.07 and $6.75 respectfully, which gives implied probabilities of 86 and 14 per cent.
The Mercury, contains the latest EMRS poll of 1002 Tasmanian voters. State wide, the poll predicts that Labor will win 32 per cent of the vote. The Liberals should win 25 per cent of the vote, and the Greens: 17 per cent. In the Hobart electorate of Denison, the Greens are polling 36 per cent compared with Labor on 35 per cent.
The EMRS poll suggests as a “best guess” of the election called by Premier Paul Lennon yesterday the ALP would get 11 seats, Liberals 7, The Greens 5, with two uncertain.
The Mercury believes that under Tasmania’s Hare Clark electoral system, it is very unlikely Labor would win 12 seats, let alone the 13 seats it needs for majority government.
For South Australia, Centrebet has odds for the winner of the seat of Norwood. This is Labor’s most marginal seat. Centrebet is paying $1.14 if Labor wins, five dollars if the Liberals win, $101 if Family First wins, $151 if the Greens win, and $151 if the Australian Democrats win.
Apparently an Advertiser poll predicted a two-party preferred vote of 57 to 43 per cent in Labor’s favour, the same as the previous January 11 statewide poll. However, the article did not mention the date the poll was taken, nor the sample size.
According to the Mercury and the Examiner, Premier Lennon will call an election for Saturday the 18th of March 2006. Apparently the Tasmanian Cabinet will be meeting this morning (and not next Monday as usual). Political pundits have seized on this fact as evidence for an early election.
An 18 March 2006 election for Tasmania would coincide with the South Australia election. Green and Bowe have pages on the South Australian election.
Notwithstanding the recent Morgan poll result, the betting market suggests the AWB oil-for-food scandal is having minimal impact on the Government’s standing in the electorate. There was one minor movement in the betting market over the last week. The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.8 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election, down 0.2 per cent from last week.
There has been no movement at Sportingbet on the Liberal leadership this week.
There is no change in respect of NSW. The next New South Wales election is due on 24 March 2007 and Centrebet is paying $1.65 for a Labor win and $2.10 for a Coalition win. The implied win probabilities are 56 per cent for Labor and 44 per cent for the Coalition.
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