Weekly betting market update
New South Wales
The big news in this week’s check of the betting market is New South Wales. Centrebet has Labor on $1.80 to win in 2007. The Coalition is on $1.90. The implied probability of winning is 51 per cent for Labor and 49 per cent for the Coalition. In August last year it was 59 and 41 per cent respectively.
Update 1 March 2006: The odds for the New South Wales 2007 election are now even, paying $1.85 for both Labor and the Coalition.
Tasmania
For the Tasmanian state election, Centrebet has Labor on $4.00 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.20 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probabilities are 23 and 77 per cent respectively.
South Australia
For the South Australian election, Centrebet has Labor on $1.01 to win 24 or more seats (ie. majority government). Centrebet would pay $12 if Labor won less than 24 seats. The implied probabilities are 92.2 and 7.8 per cent respectively. This is about as close as the betting market gets to a certainty.
Federal
The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.8 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election.
- For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.65 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.10 (was $1.66 and $2.10 last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56.0 per cent
- For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.75 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.05. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.9 per cent
- SportingBet is paying $1.73 for a Coalition win and $2.00 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.6 per cent
- SportsBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.10 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.7 per cent
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