Tasmanian state election
The betting market at Centrebet appears to have reached an equilibrium point. Labor has about a 25 per cent probability of retaining majority government at the 18 March 2006 poll. A 75 per cent probability it will not.
The most recent TasPoll (also here) is in agreement. It predicted 11 seats for Labor, nine for the Liberals and five for the Greens.
Only 20 sleeps to go.