Weekly betting market update
The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.8 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election. Notwithstanding the minor movement from one bookmaker, this result is essentially unchanged from last week.
- For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.66 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.10 (was $1.65 and $2.10 last week). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.9 per cent
- For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.75 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.05. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.9 per cent
- SportingBet is paying $1.73 for a Coalition win and $2.00 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.6 per cent
- SportsBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.10 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.7 per cent
For the Tasmanian state election, Centrebet has Labor on $6.00 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.09 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probability is 15 and 85 per cent respectively. This is an improvement for Labor, which was at 10 per cent on Saturday.
Centrebet’s odds for the winner of the South Australian seat of Norwood are unchanged since Saturday. This is Labor’s most marginal seat in the 18 March state election. Centrebet is paying $1.14 if Labor wins, five dollars if the Liberals win, $101 if Family First wins, $151 if the Greens win, and $151 if the Australian Democrats win.
Today Centrebet did not post odds on the 2007 NSW election. Also, Sportingbet did not post odds on the the Liberal leadership at the time of the 2007 Federal election.
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