State elections: odds and polls
Tasmania
Centrebet is paying $1.04 if Labor wins fewer than 13 seats in Tasmania, and $9.00 if Labor wins 13 seats or more. In short, the punters believe that Labor has a ten per cent chance of securing majority government in Tasmania at the 18th of March election. Update 19 February at 10am: The odds are now $1.07 and $6.75 respectfully, which gives implied probabilities of 86 and 14 per cent.
The Mercury, contains the latest EMRS poll of 1002 Tasmanian voters. State wide, the poll predicts that Labor will win 32 per cent of the vote. The Liberals should win 25 per cent of the vote, and the Greens: 17 per cent. In the Hobart electorate of Denison, the Greens are polling 36 per cent compared with Labor on 35 per cent.
The EMRS poll suggests as a “best guess” of the election called by Premier Paul Lennon yesterday the ALP would get 11 seats, Liberals 7, The Greens 5, with two uncertain.
The Mercury believes that under Tasmania’s Hare Clark electoral system, it is very unlikely Labor would win 12 seats, let alone the 13 seats it needs for majority government.
South Australia
For South Australia, Centrebet has odds for the winner of the seat of Norwood. This is Labor’s most marginal seat. Centrebet is paying $1.14 if Labor wins, five dollars if the Liberals win, $101 if Family First wins, $151 if the Greens win, and $151 if the Australian Democrats win.
Apparently an Advertiser poll predicted a two-party preferred vote of 57 to 43 per cent in Labor’s favour, the same as the previous January 11 statewide poll. However, the article did not mention the date the poll was taken, nor the sample size.