Betting market weekly update

Bryan · Monday 13 February 2006 · 7:35 am

Notwithstanding the recent Morgan poll result, the betting market suggests the AWB oil-for-food scandal is having minimal impact on the Government’s standing in the electorate. There was one minor movement in the betting market over the last week. The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.8 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election, down 0.2 per cent from last week.

  • For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.65 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.10. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56 per cent
  • For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.75 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.05. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.9 per cent
  • SportingBet is paying $1.73 for a Coalition win and $2.00 for a Labor win (was $1.72 and $2.05). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.6 per cent
  • SportsBet is paying $1.67 for a Coalition win and $2.10 for a Labor win. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 55.7 per cent

There has been no movement at Sportingbet on the Liberal leadership this week.

There is no change in respect of NSW. The next New South Wales election is due on 24 March 2007 and Centrebet is paying $1.65 for a Labor win and $2.10 for a Coalition win. The implied win probabilities are 56 per cent for Labor and 44 per cent for the Coalition.

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Betting market ·