The Parliamentary Library has released a whole bunch of papers. The psephologically inclined might want to get their fangs into:
The latest fortnightly Newspoll was published in the Australian. The national two-party preferred vote prediction is Labor 51 per cent to the Coalition’s 49 per cent. The primary vote was Labor 39 per cent, and the Coalition 41 per cent.
The monthly ACNielsen was published in the Fairfax press. The national two-party preferred vote prediction is Labor 52 per cent to the Coalition’s 48 per cent. The primary vote was Labor 40 per cent, and the Coalition 42 per cent.
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The big news in this week’s check of the betting market is New South Wales. Centrebet has Labor on $1.80 to win in 2007. The Coalition is on $1.90. The implied probability of winning is 51 per cent for Labor and 49 per cent for the Coalition. In August last year it was 59 and 41 per cent respectively.
Update 1 March 2006: The odds for the New South Wales 2007 election are now even, paying $1.85 for both Labor and the Coalition.
For the Tasmanian state election, Centrebet has Labor on $4.00 to win 13 or more seats on 18 March (ie. majority government), and $1.20 to win less than 13 seats. The implied probabilities are 23 and 77 per cent respectively.
For the South Australian election, Centrebet has Labor on $1.01 to win 24 or more seats (ie. majority government). Centrebet would pay $12 if Labor won less than 24 seats. The implied probabilities are 92.2 and 7.8 per cent respectively. This is about as close as the betting market gets to a certainty.
The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.8 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election.
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The betting market at Centrebet appears to have reached an equilibrium point. Labor has about a 25 per cent probability of retaining majority government at the 18 March 2006 poll. A 75 per cent probability it will not.
The most recent TasPoll (also here) is in agreement. It predicted 11 seats for Labor, nine for the Liberals and five for the Greens.
Only 20 sleeps to go.
Morgan’s latest poll is out. The head line prediction, were an election held over the last fortnight, was a national two-party preferred vote of 47.5 per cent for the Coalition, and 52.5 per cent for Labor. Labor would have won a Federal election if was held over the last fortnight.
The predicted primary vote for the Coalition fell half a point to 40 per cent. The primary vote for Labor was also down 1.5 points to 40.5 per cent. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 8 per cent (unchanged), Australian Democrats 2.5 per cent (up 1), Family First 2 per cent (unchanged), One Nation 1 per cent (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 6 per cent (up 1).
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