Oz Politics Blog

Today’s papers are full of stories about Geoff Gallop’s surprise resignation as Premier following his diagnosis with depression.

The interesting political question is who will replace him. Deputy Premier Eric Ripper, who has been Acting Premier while Dr Gallop has been on leave, will continue until a new leader is selected. However, he is not favoured to win the post. The emerging consensus is that Alan Carpenter is the most likely to take up the Premier’s mantle.

According to Peter Van Onselen, a lecturer in politics at Perth’s Edith Cowan University, things should go Carpenter’s way, but may get messy because Carpenter is currently in London.

I suspect it will be smooth, but only because he does appear to have the numbers, he has been touted as the man most likely for a long time.

He’s a clean skin, a lot of the other senior ministers in Western Australia have a certain amount of baggage, whereas he doesn’t, and he’s also in the right faction… because again, a lot of the other senior ministers aren’t from the right faction to have the numbers.

Having said all of that, because it’s come at such a surprise time, Alan Carpenter’s numbers were really in preparation for, you know, three, four or more years from now when Dr Gallop chose to retire, not now.

So the shortness of time, the fact that he’s overseas - things could get muddy. If they do, it’ll literally be in the next 48 hours I suspect.

As implied by the SMH article, there is much speculation on a Cabinet reshuffle before Parliament returns on 7 February 2006. The questions are always the same: who will come, who will go, who will win and who will lose? In what appears to be largely speculation, the SMH suggested that Hill will go (Ambassador to the United Nations), and some under-performers will be returned to the backbench. Possible winners include Sydney’s Malcolm Turnbull and Melbourne’s Andrew Robb.

The big question (only hinted at in SMH) is the size of any Cabinet reshuffle. A small reshuffle – just dealing with Hill’s departure and no demotions for under-performance – would leave open the question of Howard’s retirement and a transfer to Costello. Wholesale change to the Ministry would stamp Howard’s intention to contest the 2007 Federal election.

I will be keeping an eye on the book on the Liberal leadership at SportingBet. A run on either Howard or Costello should answer any questions on the size of the expected Cabinet reshuffle.

There was no movement to report on the betting market since last Monday. The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.7 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election.

• For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.65 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.10 (unchanged from the previous report). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56 per cent.
• For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.75 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.05 (unchanged). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.9 per cent.
• SportingBet is paying $1.72 for a Coalition win and $2.05 for a Labor win (unchanged). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 54.4 per cent.
• SportsBet is paying $1.70 for a Coalition win and $2.05 for a Labor win (unchanged). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 54.7 per cent.

Only Sportingbet appears to have a book on the Liberal leadership this week. It is unchanged from 1 January.

The usual graphs are here. You may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Today’s ‘Tiser has a new poll nine weeks out from the election. The headline prediction is a two party preferred vote of 57 per cent for Labor and 43 per cent for the Liberals.

The poll, of 516 voters, shows the Liberal Party primary vote has dropped to 30 per cent, its lowest rating since March, 2001 …

The Advertiser poll shows Labor’s support remains steady on 41 per cent but when preferences are distributed along the lines they were at the 2002 state poll, it is maintaining the strong lead it has held since March last year. The two-party preferred vote, according to The Advertiser poll, is 57 per cent to 43 per cent.

This represents an 8 per cent swing to Labor since 2002 - giving it enough Liberal seats to govern in its own right without independent Rory McEwen or National Karlene Maywald …

Based on the latest poll, the [Liberal] party is looking at losing up to seven seats - Hartley, Stuart, Light, Mawson, Morialta, Bright and Newland. There is also a chance of Labor taking independent Dr Bob Such’s seat of Fisher which he holds by 6 per cent.

The figures would give the Liberals no hope of winning two key marginals - Adelaide and Norwood - which have figured in their calculations. The Advertiser poll shows the Labor vote in the metropolitan area running at 45 per cent compared to the Liberals on 26 per cent - down three points from the last poll on December 5. Even in the rural areas, the Liberal vote has dropped nine points to 40 per cent but the Liberals are still comfortably ahead of Labor on 29 per cent.

The disturbing figure for the Liberals is that in the metropolitan area, the all-important two-party preferred vote has Labor 22 points ahead - 61 per cent to the Liberals’ 39 per cent.

Liberals are ahead 55-45 in the country.

Update - 16 January 2005: Another report from that poll. this time on issues. Also, a home-bail policy statement from the Liberals.

There have been further allegations of (at least the appearance of) impropriety around the Betfair licence in the form of an unpaid feature article on the Lennon family relaxing at their historic home at Broadmarsh due to appear in the Packer owned Australian Women’s Weekly. Bob Carr, Bob Hawke and Malcomlm Fraser all had paid for feature articles in the Woman’s Weekly around election time. Lennon has denied any relationship between the two matters.

The Mercury also reported that Labor’s popular Launceston (Bass) representative (and former Miss Australia) Kathryn Hay would not be contesting the next state election. The loss of the popular candidate will make it more difficult for Labor in Bass at the next election.

The Herald Sun suggested the Tasmanian election will still be held in March (as rumoured) to aviod a Parliamentary sitting and further questions.

The Tassie Talks web site has a forum on the 2006 Tasmanian state election. The site lists the Labor and Liberal candidates. It is also an interesting collection of local opinion. I found this photo of a recent Liberal billboard there.