Betting market update
There are no changes on the betting market to report this week. The average of the four bookmakers suggests a 54.7 per cent probability of a Coalition government following the 2007 Federal election.
- For a Coalition win Centrebet would pay $1.65 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.10 (unchanged from the previous report). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56 per cent.
- For a Coalition win IASBet would pay $1.75 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.05 (unchanged). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 53.9 per cent.
- SportingBet is paying $1.72 for a Coalition win and $2.05 for a Labor win (unchanged). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 54.4 per cent.
- SportsBet is paying $1.70 for a Coalition win and $2.05 for a Labor win (unchanged). The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 54.7 per cent.
Notwithstanding the speculation that Howard is about to announce his intention to stay on til (at least) the next election, there has been no movement at Sportingbet on the Liberal leadership this week.
There is no change in respect of NSW. The next New South Wales election is due on 24 March 2007 and Centrebet is paying $1.65 for a Labor win and $2.10 for a Coalition win. The implied win probabilities are 56 per cent for Labor and 44 per cent for the Coalition.
If anyone is aware of an internet bookmaker with odds for the South Australian, Tasmanian or Victorian state elections, please let me know.
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