Oz Politics Blog

Today’s ‘Tiser has a new poll nine weeks out from the election. The headline prediction is a two party preferred vote of 57 per cent for Labor and 43 per cent for the Liberals.

The poll, of 516 voters, shows the Liberal Party primary vote has dropped to 30 per cent, its lowest rating since March, 2001 …

The Advertiser poll shows Labor’s support remains steady on 41 per cent but when preferences are distributed along the lines they were at the 2002 state poll, it is maintaining the strong lead it has held since March last year. The two-party preferred vote, according to The Advertiser poll, is 57 per cent to 43 per cent.

This represents an 8 per cent swing to Labor since 2002 - giving it enough Liberal seats to govern in its own right without independent Rory McEwen or National Karlene Maywald …

Based on the latest poll, the [Liberal] party is looking at losing up to seven seats - Hartley, Stuart, Light, Mawson, Morialta, Bright and Newland. There is also a chance of Labor taking independent Dr Bob Such’s seat of Fisher which he holds by 6 per cent.

The figures would give the Liberals no hope of winning two key marginals - Adelaide and Norwood - which have figured in their calculations. The Advertiser poll shows the Labor vote in the metropolitan area running at 45 per cent compared to the Liberals on 26 per cent - down three points from the last poll on December 5. Even in the rural areas, the Liberal vote has dropped nine points to 40 per cent but the Liberals are still comfortably ahead of Labor on 29 per cent.

The disturbing figure for the Liberals is that in the metropolitan area, the all-important two-party preferred vote has Labor 22 points ahead - 61 per cent to the Liberals’ 39 per cent.

Liberals are ahead 55-45 in the country.

Update - 16 January 2005: Another report from that poll. this time on issues. Also, a home-bail policy statement from the Liberals.