Oz Politics Blog

Yesterday I reported on the odds at Centrebet and IASBet. Subsequently, I found this statement from Gerard at Centrebet (dated 22 December),

Just when we thought that the Coalition had plenty of in-house turmoil that might affect them at the next election up bobs a punter who fancies them to get back in.

We eased the Coalition out to 1.85 equal favourites with Labor on the back of John Howard’s workplace reforms, and while those reforms have been receiving plenty of criticism, one of our election clients disagrees.

This week he placed $10,000 at 1.85, $20,000 at 1.75, then another $20,000 at 1.65. That’s where the price remains for the moment and it does appear very short odds given what has been going on. Labor meantime has drifted out to 2.10.

Of note, other bookmarkers are not reflecting the movement seen at Centrebet and (to a lesser extent) IASBet.

• SportsBet still has it as even money, paying $1.85 for both a Coalition and Labor win.
• SportingBet is paying $1.80 for a Coalition win and $1.90 for a Labor win.

It was enough to make me wonder whether the movement at Centrebet was a ham-fisted attempt to influence the odds (and consequently public opinion) by (for example) a Coalition support group. Certainly, it was not rational behaviour. All other things being equal, the self-interested punter would not have placed the second and subsequent bets at Centrebet when other bookies have better odds on offer. Strange!

If Coalition supporters are gaming the betting market in order to change public opinion about Howard’s chances next election, it could prove expensive as we approach the next election.

Changing topic, also of note, SportingBet and SportsBet have books on who will lead the Liberal Party at the time of the next Federal election. This morning’s odds were: