Oz Politics Blog

Newspoll’s weekend poll resulted in a national two-party preferred vote prediction of 51 per cent for Labor and 49 per cent for the Coalition (compared with 54 to 46 per cent at the last Newspoll). Newspoll predicted 41 per cent for the Coalition on primary votes (up three), and 39 per cent for Labor (down three).

ACNielsen (also here and here) polled 1423 voters over the weekend. Its headline prediction is a national two-party preferred vote of 55 per cent for Labor to 45 per cent for the Coalition (compared with 58 to 42 at the last ACNielsen poll).

In part ACNielsen’s two-party preferred result is because Labor drew 78 per cent of the non-Labor-non-Coalition preferences, compared with 61 per cent at the last election. If preferences were to flow as they did at the last election, the national two-party preferred prediction would have been 52.5 per cent for Labor and 47.5 per cent for the Coalition. (For its two-party preferred vote prediction, Newspoll allocated preferences at the same rate they flowed at the last election).

ACNielsen’s national prediction for the primary votes is 39 per cent each for Labor (down four) and the Coalition (up two).

Of note:

The ALP’s strongest support base remains people aged between 18 and 24, with 51 per cent of voters in that bracket intending to vote Labor, while the Coalition’s strongest support is among those over 55.

Perhaps I was a little hasty last week when I said the movement detected by the most recent Morgan poll did not reflect a movement in the electorate. All three polls suggest some retreat on the recent high levels of support for Labor, typically attribted to public concern with the Government’s reforms in industrial relations.

In the wake of the Cronulla riots, ACNielsen also asked a number of questions around the issues of immigration and multiculturalism, which the SMH and Age have captured with these graphics.

Update: I have updated some all of the usual graphs. As always, you may need to hit the refresh or reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs.

Update: thanks to Euan Robertson at ACNielsen for pointing me in the right direction for the latest poll results.