Liberal leadership betting market
The last time I blogged on this, Centrebet had closed its book on the leader of the Federal Liberal party at the next election after a run on Costello. Now that Costello has run away, Centrebet has reopened its book.
| Date | Howard | Costello | Nelson | Abbott | Turnbull | Downer | Anyone else |
| 6-Sep-05 | $2.00 | $1.90 | $8.00 | $21.00 | $34.00 | $101.00 | $67.00 |
| 9-Dec-05 | $1.57 | $3.00 | $11.00 | $17.00 | $17.00 | $101.00 | $67.00 |
| Update: 10-Dec-05 | $1.53 | $3.25 | $11.00 | $17.00 | $17.00 | $81.00 | $51.00 |
| Update: 12-Dec-05 | $1.66 | $2.60 | $12.00 | $17.00 | $21.00 | $101.00 | $67.00 |
| Update: 21-Dec-05 | $1.60 | $2.70 | $12.00 | $26.00 | $17.00 | $101.00 | $67.00 |
Today’s odds have a couple of surprises. First, with Costello’s baton safely back in his knapsack, I would have thought the probability of Howard leading the party would have been higher than 53.6 per cent. Perhaps, some think there is still a Kirribilli agreement in place (or at least a prime ministerial retirement plan). It is interesting to see that which was described in the media as Costello’s white flag a couple of days ago is now being described as a six month ceasefire.
The second surprise is the rise and rise of Malcolm Turnbull, who with a probability of 4.9 per cent now shares equal fourth place with Tony Abbott. Whatever you might think of him, I would give Abbott a better chance than Turnbull of being the leader at the time of the next election.
Elsewhere, as noted in comments, Centrebet has the Coalition and Labor on the same odds of winning the next election, paying a $1.85 each for a win.