Anyone but Beazley?
Yesterday I was having a quiet drink with a Labor party faithful acquaintance who told me he had joined the ‘anyone but Beazley’ camp, a wry reference to the ABC — anyone but Crean — push that ended with the ascension of Mark Latham. We mused on the options: Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd; and dismissed them in that order. A consensus of two: Rudd is Labor’s best hope at the moment. It is amazing what clarity a few drinks brings.
By coincidence, the Weekend Magazine with today’s Australian had a Matt Price in-depth story on Beazley (no link unfortunately). Cutting to the chase…
Hardly anyone believes Beazley will become prime minister. The numbers are extraordinarily tough; after Latham took Labor backwards, the ALP requires a not unprecedented, yet daunting, uniform swing of almost five per cent. The economy shows no sign of seriously slowing. John Howard may step down next year, then again he might not. Either way, senior Liberal strategists reckon they’ve got Beazley’s measure. His diving approval, they argue, confirms internal government polling that a majority of Australian’s who once admired Beazley neither like the Labor leader nor feel much inclined to vote for him.
Another coincidence? Last night when I was putting up the latest Morgan poll results I was looking at Beazley’s satisfaction and dissatisfaction polling. For three months now it has been typically poorer than Latham’s after the 2004 election defeat (Beazley is the red line in the following graphs from February 2005 — the Latham-Beazley transition point is most noticeable on the dissatisfaction graph).
While Beazley and Howard have similar dissatisfaction ratings, the recent satisfaction ratings suggest Beazley’s world has plenty of potential electoral enemies but too few close friends.
Is it time for anyone but Beazley? Perhaps after the Latham experiment there may be a feeling of once bitten twice shy in the Labor caucus. Nonetheless, if my acquaintance is anything to go by, I bet the question is being asked.