Oz Politics Blog

The latest Morgan poll has the Coalition on 51 per cent of the national two party preferred vote.

The primary vote predictions are as follows:

• The Coalition — 43.5 per cent (up 5 on the previous poll)
• Labor — 38 per cent (down 5)
• Australian Democrats — 1.5 per cent (unchanged)
• The Greens — 9 per cent (down 0.5)
• Family First — 2 per cent (unchanged)
• One Nation — nil (down 1)
• Independent/Other — 6 per cent (up 1.5)

Is this an example of the value of incumbency? Has the government managed a negative with the electorate (amendments to the industrial relations system) under the cover of its electoral strength (new anti-terrorism legislation and the arrests of alleged terrorists in Sydney and Melbourne). Morgan seems to think so.

“The introduction of anti-terrorism laws and the subsequent terrorism-related arrests across Australia have overshadowed the continued controversy surrounding the Government’s proposed Industrial Relations reforms.

“The latest Morgan Poll taken after the terrorist arrests showed the L-NP would have won a close Federal Election.”

My suspicion is that the swing to the Coalition in this poll may be more of a statistical artefact than an accurate measurement of community intentions. Those of you who follow this blog closely will know I am always suspicious of large swings between polls.

In this case, I am particularly suspicious as the headline results were taken from last weekend, and the comparison is the weekend before that. Morgan’s usual practice is to publish a single poll result for the two weekends, with the comparison being the previous fortnight.

I will be surprised if the next fortnightly Morgan poll has this degree of support for the Coalition.

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