Betting market update
I missed the first of the month, but today:
- IASBet’s odds are a touch in the Coalition’s favour from 1 October 2005. For a Coalition win, IASBet would pay $1.63 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.25. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 58.0 per cent.
- At Centrebet, Labor has improved a touch to $2.37. The Coalition has lengthened a touch to $1.53. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 60.8 per cent. Update: at 2:30am on 8 November the odds had lengthened for Labor — $2.40 to $1.50 for the Coalition. This is an implied win probability for the Coalition of 61.5 per cent.
It seems that the betting market is not particularly moved by either the industrial relations reforms or the anti-terrorism legislation.