Morgan madness and the attack of the yoyos
The headline result: the two-party preferred vote favours Labor 50.5 to 49.5 per cent.
According to Morgan, primary support for the Coalition was 42 per cent, and for Labor it was 38.5 per cent. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 9 per cent, Australian Democrats 2.5 per cent, Family First 2 per cent, One Nation 1.5 per cent and other parties and independent candidates 4.5 per cent.
Just look at those graphs. There is no way that public opinion has been moving in this erratic manner over recent weeks that Morgan predicts.
One of things I enjoy is Morgan’s studied seriousness when it comes to explaining each fortnight’s chart.
ALP support is up since publicity surrounding the Latham Diaries has subsided. The electorates concern has now shifted to high petrol prices and worries about the Australian economy.
I am a little more cautious. I happen to think that outside of truly dramatic events (and not just the melodrama in someone’s diaries), actual week-to-week movement in the population voting intentions is limited. My take is that underneath the stochastic madness Morgan appears to have found a creeping trend from Labor to the Coalition over the last 6 weeks, but it is a little difficult to tell at the moment.