Betting market update

Bryan · Monday 3 October 2005 · 6:40 pm

While Latham’s book might be selling like hot cakes, it has had minimal impact on the betting market. Two years out from the next election, the punters think it ho hum.

  • IASBet’s odds are unchanged since 1 September 2005. For a Coalition win, IASBet would pay $1.67 and for a Labor win it would pay $2.15. The implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 56 per cent.
  • At Centrebet, Labor has drifted from $2.20 to $2.50. The Coalition has shortened from $1.60 to $1.50. At $1.50, the implied probability of a Coalition win at the next election is 62.5 per cent.

There is one other factor that might explain the minimal impact of Latham’s Diaries. The hot gossip at Canberra dinner parties is that Howard plans to retire in February 2006.

The usual graphs are here.

Betting market ·