Will I or won’t I

Bryan · Monday 19 September 2005 · 7:35 am

I am a junkie when it comes to books about Australian politics. I buy and read most books that come out. All other things being equal, The Latham Dairies would have been on my must buy list. Paradoxically yet, the extracts to date have not enticed me. My partner described them as boring. While Latham undoubtedly has a sharp pen, he lacks wit and subtlety. The book looks like a brutal sledge-fest without agility or cleverness.

For sure, I expect it to be self-serving; most auto-biographies are — Whitlam is still defending himself against the events of 1975. But I look for more in a biography. It might be insights of character and process. It could be amusing anecdotes among the daily humdrum. I enjoy well crafted prose and a clever argument. Yet, if the extracts are anything to go by, the diaries promise little beyond a raging torrent of vitriol (and some colourful nicknames).

Given my ambivalence, imagine my surprise when I read,

Booksellers are predicting The Latham Diaries, which go on sale today, could outsell Mr Clinton’s mammoth autobiography, My Life, in Australia.

The blanket coverage of revelations from Mr Latham’s diaries has led to such interest from the book-buying public that its publishers have decided to bring forward its release by two days, creating a logistical nightmare for Melbourne University Press.

I reckon it will be a dog. Most people have seen enough in the extracts and reviews over the last week to sate their appetite. (If truth be told, I think the book has been over marketed to its sales detriment). Many Labor voters are not going to buy it out of loyalty to the party. Why would they give their hard-earned to Mark? Many Coalition voters would not buy it anyway.

Okay, there is a ready market in Canberra. Coalition Senators and Members of Parliament are likely to be among the buyers as they sharpen their lines of attack on the man not even fit to clean the toilets in Parliament House. Labor parliamentarians will buy it and go straight to the index to see which of their private conversations have been made public. But this is a small market. I cannot see a huge interest in the wider public. If the punters did not vote for him why would they read his books?

The Diaries at 450 pages tops Latham’s other major tome, Civilising Global Capital. I certainly hope Latham has improved his writing style (or got himself a better editor) since 1998. Few books aimed at the popular market were more turgid. CGC was a 440 page monolith that should have been edited back to 240 pages. Crikey had this to say about it.

There are lots of long tortured sentences, piled high with jazzy sounding words. The effect is it all looks very ‘intellectual’, but when you break it down nothing much is really being said.

For example, instead of calling a country a country, he prefers ‘nation-state political jurisdiction’. The book is so overloaded with buzzwords you feel nauseous: vertical and horizontal social capital; endogenous growth; radical centre politics; zero sum choices; downwards envy; mutuality. A lot of the book cannot be fathomed without deciphering its own internal language and logic.

Here’s a sentence picked at random: ‘As noted earlier, one of the contradictions of the competitive advantage paradigm is the way in which it loads extra responsibilities onto the budgets of government while also seeking, in the accounting systems of nations, to blame public sector dissaving for the problems of a current account deficit.’ See what I mean?

I am torn. Should I wait until the Diaries sell for ten dollars a pop in the remaindered bin? When that happens, it will be in good company with Cheryl Kernot (Speaking for Myself Again) and Bob Hawke (The Hawke Memoirs). Or should I get it today? Advise me dear reader.

Update: It looks like I was wrong with my dog prediction. Today’s SMH says Rush to the bookstores shows bile is a bestseller

Update: At $24 from Big W in Woden, I succumbed.

Election results

Bryan · Sunday 18 September 2005 · 8:12 am

New Zealand — Labour got 41 per cent of the vote and 50 seats. The Nationals got 40 per cent of the vote and 49 seats. Twenty three seats are shared by six minor parties. Winston Peters (NZ First) lost his seat, but could well return to the NZ Parliament in one of the list seats.

Now it is down to the haggling to see which side can create a coalition government. It will be a few days before we find out who will occupy the Beehive. According to the the poll bludger Labour’s Helen Clark is the favourite.

The key to the situation was Labour’s ultimate lead over the Nationals of one parliamentary seat and 1.1 per cent, since both New Zealand First and United Future New Zealand had resolved to support whichever party led on these measures.

Southerly Buster agrees with TPB, “it’s hard to see how anyone but Helen Clarke (sic) can emerge as prime minister”.

Clarke starts from a base of 50 seats and needs 12 for a majority of 62. Clarke has an existing coalition with the Greens which leaves her looking for 6 MPs. New Zealand First said before the election they would support the largest party which is 7 more, although United Future say they will not support a government with Green MPs. It is impossible to see the Maori Party supporting Brash’s project to abolish the Maori seats and end any special standing for the Maori people. A Green/UFNZ/Maori Party arrangement gives Clarke a majority of 63 without New Zealand First.

Brash starts from a base of 49 and needs 13 to govern. His only certain partner is ACT New Zealand and that leaves him 11 short. Even if Winston Peters, the head of New Zealand First, persuades himself (as he has on past occasions) to support a National Party government Brash is still 4 short and looking for Green support. Even if Brash cobbled together a New Zealand First/Act New Zealnd/United Future New Zealand arrangement he would still need one more MP. Where would he find them? The Greens, the Maori Party and Jim Anderton all stand to Labour’s left.

Mumble rightly points out that if Helen Clark wins government it would be against the odds.

Centrebet’s odds for Labour have blown out to a distressing $2.10 against Nationals $1.65. I still reckon Clark will probably form government. If she does, it should put paid to those silly articles about betting punters always getting it right

The NSW triple-M by-election went as every-one predicted: a clean sweep for Labor. There is some speculation that Latham’s Diaries contributed to the 12.5 per cent swing against Labor’s Steven Chaytor in the seat of Macquarie Fields. The Macquarie Fields swing was larger than the other seats.

Update: Antony Green writes on the by-election results.

Latham land: the saga continues

Bryan · Saturday 17 September 2005 · 7:50 am

Red Rag has a spoof on the Latham diaries. (Be warned: it contains very offensive language).

Annabel Crabb is publishing her own book on the 2004 election: Losing it. The link is to an extract – an interesting read.

It looks like Latham may have cut a few too many mutually exclusive exclusives when he launched his new book.

The SMH is running an internet poll on whether you believe Latham. After some 10,000 votes the results are 38 per cent believe all his claims, 32 per cent believe only some of his claims, and 29 per cent do not believe his claims.

Apparently, Latham has named Penny Fischer and Kate Ellis as women at the centre of false harassment allegations. The named women have also denied the allegations.

In another all-care-no-responsibility moment, Latham blamed Labor’s advertising strategy for the 2004 election loss.

The Australian editorialises: Voters vindicated by Latham diaries. Swan agrees.

Elizabeth Gosch and Helen McCabe undertook a gender analysis: “Women feature strongly in Mark Latham’s diaries. In often unflattering and crude language, he trashes wives, colleagues and journalists”.

A link to the Denton interview

A link to the Lateline interview

Update: Kim Beazley’s daughters respond to the criticisms of their father.

The Latham Diaries

Bryan · Wednesday 14 September 2005 · 7:00 am

I love a good book review, and Paul Kelly’s review of The Latham Diaries is a goodie.

The way Kelly calls it, Latham’s Diaries takes us into Latham’s fantasy world. It ‘explains’ Latham’s own demise, Labor’s terminal pathology, and yet another Labor defeat at Howard’s hands. It has the tone of a tragic-farce. Like all good tragedies, there are many deaths.

He denounces nearly all his former colleagues … He attacks or criticises Kim Beazley, Kevin Rudd (repeatedly), Jenny Macklin, Lindsay Tanner, Bob McMullan, Tim Gartrell (at length), Robert Ray, Stephen Conroy, Anthony Albanese, Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Bob Carr, Simon Crean and even Paul Keating and Gough Whitlam, among others.

For Kelly, Latham’s story was not compelling. There were too many inconsistencies.

So the Diaries reveal Latham as a pessimist about politics and a pessimist about human nature. Too often he sees the worst in people. So unforgiving of others, he is often forgiving of himself.

Yet his Diaries have a bizarre duality. Latham is a victim and an attack dog, moving effortlessly between such contradictory identities. He thrived for a long time in the dysfunctional culture that he condemns and his Diaries is riddled with a random and casual brutality that is a case study in the political violence he deplores.

“On any given day dozens of Labor politicians would be on the phone gossiping, plotting and spreading rumours about their so-called colleagues,” Latham writes. “Nothing was off-limits. Personal and private matters were seen as fair game.” Yet he seems oblivious to the great political support the party delivered him during his run to the 2004 poll.

Kelly’s conclusion …

Latham has now taken his own flight to escapism. Reaction to his book will confirm his sharp pen but reveal his defective ear. The issue raised by his diaries is whether the sickness lies in the system, as he claims, or in himself.

Update — 15 September 2005

Just a selection of the column inches dedicated to this story …

NSW by-elections

Bryan · Tuesday 13 September 2005 · 7:48 am

I thought I would point out a few good links on the by-elections for the New South Wales state seats of Macquarie Fields, Maroubra, and Marrickville. The by-elections will be held this Saturday, 17 September 2005, the same day as the New Zealand general election.