Bryan
· Wednesday 3 August 2005
· 7:03 am
ACNielsen and Newspoll both released opinion polls yesterday. The head line two-party preferred results were:
- ACNielsen — 52 to 48 per cent in Labor’s favor (down two for Labor)
- Newspoll — 51 to 49 per cent in Labor’s favor (up two for Labor)
But it should be noted if ACNielsen’s non-Coalition-non-Labor votes were distributed on the same basis as Newspoll’s (that is to say, as they were at the last Federal election), the ACNielsen result would have been 50.3 per cent in the Coalition’s favour.
The Primary votes were as follows:
- Coalition — 43 per cent (ACNielsen up 3) and 42 per cent (Newspoll down 2)
- Labor —; 38 per cent (ACNielsen down 3) and 41 per cent (Newspoll up 2)
- Greens — 11 per cent (ACNielsen up 1) and 7 per cent (Newspoll up 2)
- Other — 9 per cent (ACNielsen up 1) and 10 per cent (Newspoll down 1)
- Australian Democrats — 3 per cent (ACNielsen up 1)
- Independents — 3 per cent (ACNielsen down 1)
- One Nation – 1 per cent (ACNielsen steady)
- Other — 2 per cent (ACNielsen up 1)
While there appears to be agreement on the Coalition vote, there is disagreement on the primary vote for Labor and the Greens.
Beazley is not doing as well as Howard in the attitudinal polling:
|
ACNielsen: Preferred Prime Minister
|
| Howard |
Beazley |
Uncommitted |
| 53% |
36% |
11% |
|
Newspoll: Better Prime Minister
|
| Howard |
Beazley |
Uncommitted |
| 54% |
26% |
20% |
|
ACNielsen: Approve of Prime Minister’s Performance
|
| Approve |
Disapprove |
Uncommitted |
| 51% |
41% |
7% |
|
ACNielsen: Approve of Opposition Leader’s Performance
|
| Approve |
Disapprove |
Uncommitted |
| 40% |
48% |
12% |
|
Newspoll: Satisfied with John Howard’s Performance
|
| Satisfied |
Dissatisfied |
Uncommitted |
| 52% |
37% |
11% |
|
Newspoll: Satisfied with Kim Beazley’s Performance
|
| Satisfied |
Dissatisfied |
Uncommitted |
| 34% |
46% |
20% |
|
With more than 10,000 observations, the aggregated monthly poll for July does not look good for John Howard.
The latest graphs are here.
Aggregated Polls · Newspoll · Nielsen · Polls ·
Bryan
· Monday 1 August 2005
· 6:08 am
The punters at Centrebet have warmed just a tad to Beazley over the month. One month ago, Labor was on $2.55 for the win, today it is $2.50. A Coalition win would pay $1.50. Today’s implied probabilities from the odds are 62.5 per cent for a Coalition win and 37.5 per cent for a Labor win at the next election.
IASbet is unchanged over the month, with a Coalition win paying $1.57 and a Labor win $2.40. The implied win probabilities are 60 per cent for the Coalition and 40 per cent for Labor.
The odds for the Liberal Party leader at the time of the next election have seen a restoration of Costello’s fortunes, at the expense of Nelson and Abbott. This seems a reasonable market correction.
| Date |
Howard |
Costello |
Nelson |
Abbott |
Turnbull |
Downer |
Anyone else |
| 14-May-05 |
$1.80 |
$2.00 |
$11.00 |
$13.00 |
$51.00 |
$101.00 |
$34.00 |
| 1-Jun-05 |
$1.66 |
$2.25 |
$10.00 |
$13.00 |
$41.00 |
$101.00 |
$34.00 |
| 1-Jul-05 |
$1.66 |
$3.50 |
$5.00 |
$10.00 |
$101.00 |
$34.00 |
$34.00 |
| 1-Aug-05 |
$1.66 |
$3.00 |
$6.50 |
$11.00 |
$101.00 |
$34.00 |
$34.00 |
For the next New South Wales election Centerbet is paying $1.55 if the Coalition wins and $2.25 if Labor wins. The implied probabilities are 59 and 41 per cent.
Centrebet is also running a book on the winner of the New Zealand general election set for 17 September 2005. With New Zealand’s Mixed Member Proportional (MMP) system of voting, this could be a difficult market to predict. This morning’s odds are:
Betting market · Costello for PM · NSW ·