Mixed poll results
ACNielsen: 50-50
This morning’s ACNielsen result was not good news for Labor. Beazley’s satisfaction rating continued its decline. Labor’s Primary vote last weekend was estimated at 36 per cent, four points below the 40 per cent threshold many consider necessary for Labor to win government.
However, it was not all good news for the Coalition either. Labor’s vote appears to be going to the Greens and Democrats, and then returning as preferences. As a result, the two-party preferred result was 50-50. (However, if you assume these preferences would flow much as they did at the 2004 Federal election, the result would have favoured the Coalition 52 to 48 per cent).
ACNielsen found some interesting regional differences.
The 50-50 two-party national vote masks considerable variation across the country. Labor is ahead on a two-party basis in Victoria, NSW and Western Australia, while the Coalition is well ahead in Queensland and South Australia.
Labor is trailing outside the capital cities, where it might have been expected to make progress on the Telstra issue. There is little difference between city and regional voters in their view of Telstra’s full sale.
And ACNielsen polled on the sale of Telstra and industrial relations reform.
In the case of Telstra, 64 per cent of respondents were opposed to the full sale and 25 per cent were in favour - an almost identical result to that recorded in March and May 2000. A majority of opposed was recorded in all age groups, states and regions. However, there has been some movement among Coalition supporters, whose opposition to the Telstra sale is now 44 per cent, down nine points from May 2000.
On the industrial relations changes, opposition was at 59 per cent, down one point on last month. But the strength of opposition may have declined slightly more, with those describing themselves as “strongly opposed” falling from 41 per cent to 36 per cent. Twenty-four per cent of people - up three - supported the reform package, yet opposition from Coalition supporters rose four points to 27 per cent.
Newspoll: 51-49 in Labor’s favour
Newspoll found quite a different result to ACNielsen.
According to Newspoll, the two-party preferred vote would have favoured Labor 51 to 49 per cent last weekend. Newspoll distributed preferences in the same way that they flowed at the 2004 Federal election.
In terms of the primary vote, Newspoll has Labor on 40 per cent and the Coalition on 42 per cent.
However, when it comes to the attitudinal polling, Newspoll and ACNielsen had similar results. These can be seen on my usual range of polling charts.