Surreal moment of reflexivity

Bryan · Wednesday 31 August 2005 · 8:43 am

I came across a critique of my blog this morning. Kelly’s DDP Blog has reviewed my site and another — Extraordinary ordinary guy in Japan — in terms of how well our designs fit their purpose and the needs and expectations of our target audiences. It sounds like a school project. Still, why me?

On some aspects I passed,

In The oz politics blog, ‘symmetrical balance’ is achieved: both the left and right side of the page have fairly equal visual weight. The effect of this is that readers’ are allowed to focus on the content, not being distracted by the design.

The oz politics blog uses a range of graphics including tables, and column, line and bar graphs, to display statistical data. These types of graphics can help readers ‘grasp trends and other numerical relationships much more quickly than they could from sentences’ (Anderson 2003, p. 269). Furthermore, they also break up typed text and can make reading more enjoyable.

On some aspects I failed,

The position of the contents bar in The oz politics blog hinders the sites usability. It being positioned horizontal at the top of the page means that as readers scroll down they lose access to the links it provides. Readers are forced to scroll all the way back to the top if they want to use the links. ‘A well-designed site offers good navigational tools to give the reader a clear, quick, and consistent method to move within the site’ (California State University Sacramento 2002).

Another disadvantage of the contents bar in The oz politics blog, is that it doesn’t display via a drop-down box the titles of previous entries. The reader has to click on either the word ‘blog’ or ‘previous entries’, and wait for that page to load before they can view the available titles.

But the sting was in the tail,

While The oz politics blog is extremely informative and educational, there are no direct requests for reader participation, and the language doesn’t acknowledge the reader very often. This could be a contributing factor to the low number of reader responses this site receives. Each entry only receives 1 or 2 responses. However, in saying this we should also consider the fact that the site’s main topic, Australian politics, may have a smaller audience.

Perhaps the deciding factor on which blog is better, if a decision has to be made, lies in the fact that more people are interacting with Extraordinary ordinary guy in Japan than The oz politics blog? While the comprehensiveness of the information presented within The oz politics blog cannot be denied, at the end of the day if the site’s not being used then what’s the point?

Comments welcome!

Mixed poll results

Bryan · Tuesday 30 August 2005 · 6:48 am

ACNielsen: 50-50

This morning’s ACNielsen result was not good news for Labor. Beazley’s satisfaction rating continued its decline. Labor’s Primary vote last weekend was estimated at 36 per cent, four points below the 40 per cent threshold many consider necessary for Labor to win government.

However, it was not all good news for the Coalition either. Labor’s vote appears to be going to the Greens and Democrats, and then returning as preferences. As a result, the two-party preferred result was 50-50. (However, if you assume these preferences would flow much as they did at the 2004 Federal election, the result would have favoured the Coalition 52 to 48 per cent).

ACNielsen found some interesting regional differences.

The 50-50 two-party national vote masks considerable variation across the country. Labor is ahead on a two-party basis in Victoria, NSW and Western Australia, while the Coalition is well ahead in Queensland and South Australia.

Labor is trailing outside the capital cities, where it might have been expected to make progress on the Telstra issue. There is little difference between city and regional voters in their view of Telstra’s full sale.

And ACNielsen polled on the sale of Telstra and industrial relations reform.

In the case of Telstra, 64 per cent of respondents were opposed to the full sale and 25 per cent were in favour - an almost identical result to that recorded in March and May 2000. A majority of opposed was recorded in all age groups, states and regions. However, there has been some movement among Coalition supporters, whose opposition to the Telstra sale is now 44 per cent, down nine points from May 2000.

On the industrial relations changes, opposition was at 59 per cent, down one point on last month. But the strength of opposition may have declined slightly more, with those describing themselves as “strongly opposed” falling from 41 per cent to 36 per cent. Twenty-four per cent of people - up three - supported the reform package, yet opposition from Coalition supporters rose four points to 27 per cent.

Newspoll: 51-49 in Labor’s favour

Newspoll found quite a different result to ACNielsen.

According to Newspoll, the two-party preferred vote would have favoured Labor 51 to 49 per cent last weekend. Newspoll distributed preferences in the same way that they flowed at the 2004 Federal election.

In terms of the primary vote, Newspoll has Labor on 40 per cent and the Coalition on 42 per cent.

However, when it comes to the attitudinal polling, Newspoll and ACNielsen had similar results. These can be seen on my usual range of polling charts.

Gerard McManus and Michael Harvey

Bryan · Monday 29 August 2005 · 2:53 am

On 20 February 2004, two Canberra based press gallery journalists from Melbourne’s Herald Sun, Michael Harvey and Gerard McManus ran a story which claimed the government was going to deny war veterans a $500 million increase in benefits. The story, based on a leak, embarrassed the government.

Desmond Kelly, a 52 year old, middle level public servant from the Melbourne office of the Department of Veterans’ Affairs, is accused of being the source of the leak. The case against Kelly is circumstantial. Kelly had an email copy of the leaked documents prior to 20 February 2004. Kelly’s home and work phone records show several calls to McManus between 17 and 20 February 2004 (although it was the call from his work phone that initially alerted the Australian Federal Police). Kelly has been suspended without pay and charged under section 70 of the Commonwealth’s Crimes Act 1914, and his case is currently before the courts. Kelly has offered a ‘not guilty’ plea.

To bolster the case against Kelly, the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) subpoenaed the journalists to give evidence. In July this year McManus was asked whether he knew Kelly. He replied, ‘I decline to answer that question on the grounds that it might incriminate me.’ The DPP has subsequently granted immunity against self incrimination. McManus appeared in court last week and again refused to reveal the source. He said, ‘As a journalist I’m obliged to protect the sources of information I obtain.’

McManus and Harvey could be charged with contempt of court and face indefinite gaol terms, although the Judge at least week’s hearing said any prison term is likely span days or weeks rather than months. If Kelly is convicted he could face up to two years in gaol.

Not surprisingly, some journalists are outraged that one of their own could be gaoled for publishing a story based on a leaked document. This situation has been variously described as a sad day for democracy, government intimidation of the media, and hypocrisy as the government leaks documents all the time.

Any discussion of the rights and wrongs of this matter must begin with the leaker (whoever it was). My views on leaking are shaped by my own experience as a public servant. It is simply untenable for a public servant to leak information they acquire in the course of their employment. Governments, regardless of their political hue, have the right to develop their plans in private, and to determine when and how they will communicate those plans. It is not for an unelected public servant to decide this unilaterally for the government. The act of leaking is political. It is anathema in an apolitical public service that serves the government of the day to the best of its ability.

Some have sought to use the whistleblowing defence to justify the leak. However, this is a hollow argument. Whistleblowing relates to incidents that are in breach of the Australian Public Service (APS) Code of Conduct or the law. Furthermore there is a process that whistleblowers must follow if they want protection for their actions. And finally, the whistleblowing provisions of the Public Service Act do not override section 70 of the Crimes Act.

In this case, the leaked information was neither about an illegality nor a breach of the APS Code of Conduct. The motivation behind the leak appears to be about little more than a policy disagreement. Regardless of the merits of the government’s pre-February 2004 policy position, there is no doubt that it was perfectly legal. If the policy was not illegal, it follows that the process of leaking it was not whistleblowing. It goes without mentioning that the whistleblowing provisions were not followed.

It has been argued that governments leak all the time without penalty. However, this misses the obvious. When a Minister gives information to the media it is the government communicating its plans and intentions, whether this is done on the record or not. It is perfectly appropriate, so long as the information is not provided in breach of any laws (such as national security or personal privacy protections). There is an enormous difference between an authorised leak and an unauthorised one.

Having looked at the position of the leaker (whether it was Kelly or someone else), we need to also consider the position of the journalists.

The first thing that needs to be noted is that this court case is not an action against the journalists as such. They are being caught up in the efforts to prosecute a suspected leaker.

In refusing to name their source, the journalists are staking their position on the Media, Entertainment and Arts Alliance Code of Ethics, which says in part:

Aim to attribute information to its source. Where a source seeks anonymity, do not agree without first considering the source’s motives and any alternative attributable source. Where confidences are accepted, respect them in all circumstances.

This is a bread and butter issue for journalists. If they identify an anonymous source, they will never get another tip off. In other words, it is a career stopper. And it is here that we come to the nub of the dilemma. If the DPP respected the Journalist’s Code of Ethics, many leaks could go unpunished, and if they do not, it is possible that many journalists could go to gaol.

The courts have resolved the dilemma by saying (in effect) that journalists are not above the law. It is a difficult call. The journalists have my sympathy. I think they are in a horrible bind. Perhaps journalists will ask their sources in future, ‘where are you calling from?’ But I also think governments (of whatever political hue) should expect to be served by a professional, apolitical public service. For that to be maintained, unprofessional and political behaviour must be dealt with.

Oakes is one of many journalists who has responded to the potential incarceration of McManus and Harvey with hyperbole.

Democracy cannot work if journalists only report what governments want them to report. It is the threat of leaks that keeps politicians honest. Well, relatively honest. They are much more reluctant to lie or act improperly if they know they could be found out — that there is a risk some whistleblower will disclose it to the media.

A society where government has tight control of the flow of information — that is, control of what the public is allowed to know — is not a democratic society. Leaks, and whistleblowers, are essential to a proper democratic system.

Oakes ignores the point that this leak was not whistleblowing. And he ignores the fact that the decision to leak was made by an unelected official (hardly a democratic action). But to claim it foreshadows the end of democracy is Henny Penny in the extreme. More to the point, it appears to be just a little self-serving.

Update — 1 October2005: It looks like the Attorney-General will get involved to protect the journalists.

Morgan: 53.5 to 46.5 in Labor’s favor

Bryan · Friday 26 August 2005 · 9:22 pm

According to Morgan, in mid August, primary support for the Coalition fell 2.5 per cent to 39 per cent. Support for Labor fell slightly, down half a per cent to 41.5 per cent. If preferences were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election the ‘two-party’ preferred vote would be Labor on 53.5 per cent and the Coalition on 46.5 per cent. Had an election been held in mid August, Morgan predicted Labor would have won easily with minor party preferences.

However, I am always suspicious of polls that suggest large movements over a fortnight when it is difficult to point to a plausible reason for the fall. Morgan’s explanation is:

“Primary support for the Coalition fell 2.5% to 39% (7.4% below their result from the October 2004 election) due to the standoff in the Senate between the Liberal Party and the Queensland Nationals over the sale of Telstra and Voluntary Student Unionism. The Labor Party should be concerned by their inability to capitalise on the situation and increase their primary support. However if an election had been held in mid-August the ALP would have won on minor party preferences.”

I am not convinced. I suspect this result is a bit of an outlier; little more than stochastic noise. Though to be fair, the odds at Centrebet have drifted a touch in Labor’s direction since the first of August.

Also of note, we are starting to see the same persistent pro-Labor bias in Morgan (alternatively, a pro-Coalition bias in Newspoll) that we saw in 2002 and 2003. This time it is even more difficult to explain as both Morgan and Newspoll are allocating their preferences with a similar methodology.

The usual graphs are here (you may need to hit the refresh/reload button on your browser to see the latest).

RSS Aggregator

Bryan · Sunday 21 August 2005 · 8:10 pm

I am playing with the RSS Aggregator at the moment. I want to get the time of posts onto the Australian politics blog feeds page.

It is a bit of a challenge. The standard requires the publication date in the RSS feed to be in GMT time, yet some Australian blogs post it in local time, some post in something truly funny (like GMT plus 15 hours), some use non-standard adjustments, and some do not post it all.

Another issue is blogs that have multiple references to the same post in their RSS feeds.