Betting market drops Costello
Being the first day of the month it is time to check the betting market. I normally begin with the odds on who will win the next election; however, Centrebet’s book on who will be the Liberal leader at the time of the next election was far more interesting.
The probability that Peter Costello will be the leader at the time of the next election fell from 40 to 23 per cent over the last six weeks. Malcolm Turnbull is also a loser. His chances fell from 1.6 to 0.8 per cent.
The biggest winner was a surprise. Brendan Nelson’s probability of being the Liberal leader at the time of the next election increased from 7 to 16 per cent. Tony Abbot increased from 6 to 8 per cent. Even Alexander Downer has grown at Costello’s expense, from 0.8 to 2.4 per cent.
Nor surprisingly, John Howard remains the firm favourite. His chances increased from 44 to 49 per cent.
My record of the odds on the Liberal Party leadership at the time of the next election follows.
| Date | Howard | Costello | Nelson | Abbott | Turnbull | Downer | Anyone else |
| 14-May-05 | $1.80 | $2.00 | $11.00 | $13.00 | $51.00 | $101.00 | $34.00 |
| 1-Jun-05 | $1.66 | $2.25 | $10.00 | $13.00 | $41.00 | $101.00 | $34.00 |
| 1-Jul-05 | $1.66 | $3.50 | $5.00 | $10.00 | $101.00 | $34.00 | $34.00 |
Let’s return to the betting marking for the winner of the Federal election. Since 1 June Labor softened on the betting markets I am following. Its probability of winning the next Federal election fell from 38 to 36 per cent at Centrebet. At IASbet it fell from 41 to 40 per cent. The graphs are here (you may need to hit the refresh button on your browser to see them).
Update 4 July 2005: Centrebet odds have slipped a fraction for Labor. Labor is now paying $2.62 for a win, up from $2.55 on 1 July.