ACNielsen
Today’s papers offer not one but two, albeit contradictory, polls. First is the latest ACNielsen poll, which is reported in today’s Fairfax press (here, here, here, here, here and here).
- In two-party preferred terms, ACNielsen is predicting a Labor landslide: 54 to 46 per cent (Labor is up five points from the previous ACNielsen poll)
- The Coalition’s primary vote fell four points to 40 per cent
- Labor’s primary vote is up three points to 41 per cent
- Update: The Australian Democrats had a primary vote of two per cent (unchanged)
- Update: The Greens had a primary vote of 10 per cent (up one)
- Update: Independents had a primary vote of four per cent (unchanged)
- Update: One Nation scored one per cent (down one)
- Update: And ‘other’ also scored one per cent (down one)
While I may have missed them, it appears that no one at Fairfax reported the ACNielsen findings for the Greens, Australian Democrats, One Nation, independents or others! This is a pity. If we are lucky, in one or two months these statistics will be published in a trend table in the Age or the SMH.
On the softer attitudinal polling:
- Howard’s approval rating dropped 10 points to 49 per cent
- Beazley’s approval rating dropped 5 points to 41 per cent
- Howard is the preferred prime minister by 50 per cent of the population (down 5), while Beazley is the preferred prime minister by 39 per cent (up 4)
ACNielsen also asked questions on the Howard government proposed industrial relations reforms. Eighty-three per cent were aware and 17 per cent were unaware of the Government’s proposed changes to industrial relations. They were opposed by 60 per cent of the population, and supported by just 21 per cent. Nineteen per cent were undecided. I suspect Michelle Grattan got it right when she said,
Kim Beazley got a big breather from this poll, but he should not read the results at all complacently.
The unions’ industrial relations campaign has greatly helped the Opposition Leader. People are concerned about the drastic changes and the debate has overshadowed some of the negative issues that dogged Labor last week.
It is possible, though, that once the changes are bedded down, feelings could change. The public could find the new industrial scene less scary than Labor and unions claim.
ACNielsen also tested Latham’s recent claims.
- Fifty-four per cent disagreed with Latham’s claim that Labor is “beyond repair, beyond reform”. Twenty-nine per cent agreed with the analysis
- Fifty-two per cent disagreed with Latham’s assessment of Beazley as a “stand-for-nothing type of leader”. Thirty-six per cent agreed
- Update: Fifty-seven per cent thought Beazley had done a better job than Latham as Labor Party leader. Twenty-six per cent thought Latham had done a better job. Seventeen per cent did not know.
Newspoll
The second poll is Newspoll, which is reported here.
- The two-party preferred result is 50 per cent each for the Coalition and Labor (Labor up one and the Coalition down one)
- The Coalition’s primary vote is steady on 44 per cent
- Labor’s primary vote is up two point to 39 per cent
- Update: The Greens primary vote is down one to six per cent
- Update: The primary vote for other minor parties is down one to 11 per cent
While the reporting from the Australian for the minor parties is no better than the Fairfax press, Newspoll should release its full results tomorrow.
On the softer attitudinal polling:
- Howard’s satisfaction rating dropped 7 points to 47 per cent
- Satisfaction with the way Beazley is doing his job as Opposition Leader fell from 41 to 39 per cent. Dissatisfaction rose from 42 to 45 per cent
- Howard is the preferred prime minister by 51 per cent of the population (down 3), while Beazley is the preferred prime minister by 29 per cent (up one)
What does it all mean?
There are some trends in common with the two polls. The satisfaction and approval ratings for both leaders is in decline. Howard, particularly has seen a fall over the last month. Nonetheless, Howard remains the preferred Prime Minister.
However, when it comes to the voting prediction, it is not possible for both Newspoll and ACNielsen to be right. I am inclined to view the latest ACNielsen results as an aberration — more noise than signal. This is the second time in six months that ACNielsen’s two-party preferred result has been an outlier from the other polls. I suspect the actual population statistic at the moment is closer to 50-50, perhaps a touch into Labor territory — but not a Labor landslide.
The usual graphs are here. When you get there you may need to hit the refresh/reload button on your browser to see the latest graphs. I have begun standardising the axies of similar graphs to facilitate easier comparison.
