New South Wales election predictions
Bob Carr, the nation’s longest serving premier, has announced his resignation. Morris Iemma is Premier designate in the premier state.
The big question is how will this affect the next New South Wales election, set for 24 March 2007.
The punters at Centrebet favour John Brogden and the Coalition. Centrebet is currently paying $1.57 for a Coalition win and $2.25 for a Labor win. That equates to a probability of 59 per cent for a Coalition win and 41 per cent for a Labor win. Although this is a slight softening from when the books opened at $1.50 to $2.50.
The latest state Morgan Poll was looking good for Bob Carr. The poll was taken during July before Carr announced his resignation. The headline message was a two-party preferred result with Labor on 53.5 per cent. A 7 per cent lead over the Coalition on 46.5 per cent (albeit, down from 10 per cent at the last election).
Perhaps the poll that most interested me was the Internet poll by the SMH, on who should be Bob Carr’s replacement. After some 16,000 votes there was no stand-out candidate. Iemma’s performance suggests he is relatively unknown in the public’s mind.
And me? I am with the punters at the moment. Iemma has a huge task ahead of him. I would need to see an heroic effort before I thought he was not walking in the steps of Barrie Unsworth.