It looks like an interesting week in politics
This week Prime Minister John Howard should announce a new front bench following the retirement of Deputy Prime Minister John Anderson. Contrary to early speculation of large scale movement, the signs are that this should be minimalist ministerial reshuffle. One National will be elevated to Cabinet. The favourite is Peter McGauran, currently the Minister for Citizenship and Multicultural Affairs. If McGauran is promoted there will be a series of consequential movements: a National Parliamentary Secretary should be elevated to the outer Ministry, and a National backbencher should become a Parliamentary Secretary.
Bernard Lagan will release his biography on Mark Latham, Loner: Inside a Labor tragedy. The book is being launched by Senator John Faulkner on Wednesday. To help set the climate for the release of what promises to be a highly inflammatory tell-all book, Latham apparently criticised Kim Beazley, saying he is not worthy to lead Labor, and claimed Labor is a spent force in Australian politics.
Beazley is taking heat over his recent restructure, in which many ex-Latham supporters did poorly. Zero sum games are always difficult. Apparently Simon Crean was furious at being demoted to regional development from the key economic portfolio of trade. The talented Bob McMullan and Craig Emerson remain unhappily on the backbench as under performing individuals remain in the shadow ministry.
And just to prove as much things change they stay the same, Glenn Milne is still spruiking for Peter Costello. It was interesting to compare Milne’s assessment with Michelle Grattan’s.
PS Trevor Smith’s op ed piece in today’s Australian is an interesting analysis.
At the moment, Labor’s best prospects of winning appear to rest with a recession, a monumental mistake by the Coalition, or Howard’s likely successor, Peter Costello, being extremely unpopular with voters.
But Labor has an opportunity. It needs to admit that its historical supporter base and its potential supporter base are culturally conservative. Labor must choose. It can continue the way it has in recent times, allowing itself to be dominated by an inner-metropolitan, latte-sipping minority and avoiding hard questions. Alternatively, it can seek to represent the mainstream.
While I agree with Smith that middle Australia is where elections are won or lost, all political parties must produce broad church coalitions to win government. There are no single constituency paths to government.