NT Election: 18 June 2005
The Chief Minister for the Northern Territory, Clare Martin, has been to Government House in Darwin where she has asked the Administrator, Ted Egan, to issue a writ for a election to be held on Saturday 18 June 2005.
Centrebet has the Labor Party on $1.33 to win, and the Country Liberal Party on $3.00. This gives implied win probabilities of 69 pre cent for Labor and 31 per cent for the Country Liberals.
The Poll Bludger is tipping a Labor win. As is Ken Parish over at Troppo Armadillo; although Ken thinks the Poll Bludger has over estimated the scale of Labor’s victory.
On Monday, the NT News had the timetable for the election.
Earlier I mocked up a pendulum for the NT Election.
Update: Wednesday’s 1 June 2005 NT News has a piece on the election.
Update #2 — 2 June 2005 — Gerald at Centrebet has this to say,
The Northern Territory election was called this week and while we haven’t done the election where we reside in the past, betting on politics has become so popular that we had no choice but to offer it.
Labor currently hold office in the NT, breaking a 27 year stranglehold that the CLP had held up until that point in time. The NT is a decidedly small electorate (just over 100,000 voters) so it’s sitting on a knife’s edge.
We opened up the Labor Party at $1.33 and in the first 24 hours of betting, we took nearly $20,000 worth of bets, including two of $5000 and another of $3000.
Update #3 — daily tracking of Centrebet.
