Oz Politics Blog

Morgan normally polls every weekend and publishes a combined result every second weekend. The latest Morgan poll is only for the weekend immediately following the Federal budget.

The headline result was a predicted two-party preferred vote for Labor of 50.5 per cent (down 1.5), and for the Coalition a vote of 49.5 per cent (up 1.5). While these movements look large, they are not statistically significant. They may simply reflect the usual volatility in this data stream, rather than a movement in population voting intentions.

The predicted primary votes (with movements from the last Morgan poll in brackets) are as follows:

• The Coalition — 43 per cent (up 1)
• Labor — 41 per cent (down 1.5)
• Greens — 8 per cent (unchanged)
• Australian Democrats — 1.5% (unchanged)
• Family First — 2% (up 0.5%)
• One Nation — 0.5% (down 0.5%)
• Other Parties and Independent Candidates — 4% (up 0.5%)

According to the pollster,

“The first Morgan Poll taken after the 2005/2006 Federal Budget shows an increase in primary support for the L-NP. On a ‘two-party’ preferred basis the vote would be too close to call, however support for the L-NP has increased, indicating a positive response toward the Budget.”

I have added a new graph to my usual collection based on the Morgan poll question, ‘Regardless of who you’d like to win, who do you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?’ While it might be nothing more than noise, I thought the trend line from the last three polls looked a little ominous for Labor.

The other thing of note is the growing gap between how the non-Labor-non-Coalition voters say they will distribute their preferences and the distribution of preferences at the last election. We have also seen the same gap with ACNielsen.

All of the updated poll graphs can be seen here. When you get there, you may need to hit the refresh button on your browser to see the latest charts.