NT Election: 18 June 2005

Bryan · Tuesday 31 May 2005 · 7:00 pm

The Chief Minister for the Northern Territory, Clare Martin, has been to Government House in Darwin where she has asked the Administrator, Ted Egan, to issue a writ for a election to be held on Saturday 18 June 2005.

Centrebet has the Labor Party on $1.33 to win, and the Country Liberal Party on $3.00. This gives implied win probabilities of 69 pre cent for Labor and 31 per cent for the Country Liberals.

The Poll Bludger is tipping a Labor win. As is Ken Parish over at Troppo Armadillo; although Ken thinks the Poll Bludger has over estimated the scale of Labor’s victory.

On Monday, the NT News had the timetable for the election.

Earlier I mocked up a pendulum for the NT Election.

Update: Wednesday’s 1 June 2005 NT News has a piece on the election.

Update #2 — 2 June 2005 — Gerald at Centrebet has this to say,

The Northern Territory election was called this week and while we haven’t done the election where we reside in the past, betting on politics has become so popular that we had no choice but to offer it.

Labor currently hold office in the NT, breaking a 27 year stranglehold that the CLP had held up until that point in time. The NT is a decidedly small electorate (just over 100,000 voters) so it’s sitting on a knife’s edge.

We opened up the Labor Party at $1.33 and in the first 24 hours of betting, we took nearly $20,000 worth of bets, including two of $5000 and another of $3000.

Update #3 — daily tracking of Centrebet.

Centrebet: Win probabilities for the 2005 NT Election

Newspoll: 53 to 47 in the Coalition’s favour

Bryan · 5:05 am

The latest Newspoll for the weekend of 27-29 May 2005 was reported in today’s Australian.

The two-party preferred result saw the Coalition on 53 per cent (up two) and Labor on 47 per cent (down two). This is back at the same point it was last year when the Coalition won the 2004 election.

The Coalition’s primary vote was 47 per cent (up three) and Labor’s was 37 per cent (down three).

54 per cent of voters preferred Howard as Prime Minister (up two), while 29 per cent preferred Beazley (down two)

Satisfaction with the way Mr Howard is doing his job fell from 55 per cent to 53 per cent, and Mr Beazley’s satisfaction was unchanged on 47 per cent. Dissatisfaction with both leaders was unchanged on 36 per cent.

Of note, both Morgan and Newspoll have had the Coalition’s Primary and two-party preferred vote shares trending upwards since mid April. Could the Beazley second honeymoon be over?

I have updated all the graphs I can on the basis of today’s media reports. The remaining graphs will get have been updated this evening.

Schapelle, Schapelle, Schapelle

Bryan · Sunday 29 May 2005 · 10:32 am

Background
On Friday 27 May 2005, Schapelle Corby was found guilty of importing 4.1kg of marijuana into Bali. The marijuana was found in a transparent plastic sack that was inside another plastic sack in Corby’s unlocked boogie board bag at Bali’s Ngurah Rai airport on October 8 last year. She was sentenced to gaol for 20 years and asked to pay a fine of 100 million rupiah (almost $14,000). If the fine cannot be paid, Schapelle will serve an extra six months in gaol.

Issues
For me, the case raises three issues. The first is Schapelle’s guilt or innocence. The second is the capacity of the Indonesian legal system to determine her guilt or innocence. And the third is the size of the penalty.

Discussion
Guilt or innocence
As an external observer, it is impossible to determine whether Schapelle is guilty or not.

Her defence painted her as the hapless victim of a network of corrupt Australian baggage handlers, who were shipping drugs from airport to airport in the baggage of travellers. I find the notion of a network of corrupt baggage handlers plausible, but not compelling. And with a street value of $8000 at stake, I would be surprised if the baggage handlers were that careless to send it on the wrong flight to the wrong destination.

This explanation also begs the question about why the ‘drug overlords’ would distribute their merchandise using the airport system, with its heightened (post 2001) security and multiple x-ray checks, when couriers on Australia’s rail and bus network would be subject to less scrutiny. Another point overlooked is that the oher allegations in respect of the Australian baggage handlers relate to the distribution of cocaine, not marijuana.

In the popular media the primary argument for Schapelle’s innocence was the irrationality of importing coals to Newcastle. Apparently, marijuana is readily available in Bali at a fraction of its Australian price, and importing it would not be economically rational. While this may be the case for ‘leaf and stem’ marijuana, it does not appear to be the case for hydroponically grown buds:

An Australian who says he has lived in Bali for 15 years contacted the Herald several times to say his children were often offered marijuana called “Aussie gold”. The man, who refused to give his name, said the “hydroponic bud” from Australia sold for $600 an ounce or as much as $20,000 a kilogram.

Top-quality marijuana in Australia sells for about $8000 a kilogram although more when broken into smaller amounts. (SMH)

The further argument put is the fear of the penalty would have precluded Schapelle’s involvement. No-one would be stupid enough to take drugs to Bali knowing the death penalty could be applied. The statistics are a testament that some make a different assessment of cost, risk and benefit.

Across Indonesia, the number of arrests for drug trafficking rose from just over 1800 in 1999 to more than 9700 in 2003, the national narcotics agency, BNN, says. The agency estimates that drug addiction afflicts 3.6 per cent of the nation’s 220 million people, with an increasing number of juvenile users. (NZ Herald)

The drugs were in Schapelle’s bag. The market in Indonesia for high quality marijuana provides a better return on investment than the Australian domestic market. And not all drug traffickers are deterred by the possibility of the death sentence. It is therefore plausible that Schapelle was guilty (in legal speak, there was a strong prima facie case against her). This brings us to the second issue, was the Indonesian legal system able to determine her guilt?

The Indonesian legal system
Many have argued that while the Indonesian legal system found Schapelle guilty, the Australian legal system would have given her the benefit of reasonable doubt. There are three lines of argument here: first the Australian legal system has a presumption of innocence, while the Indonesian system has a presumption of guilt; second, the standard of evidence accepted by the Indonesian legal system; and third, judicial corruption.

The arguments around the presumption of innocence are largely a misunderstanding. Tim Lindsay and Simon Butt noted on 2 May 2005,

It has been widely asserted that Indonesian law presumes defendants guilty and requires them to prove their innocence. This issue is critical in the Corby trial because, if a presumption of guilt applies, then she faces conviction if she cannot explain how the drugs came to be in her bag. If, however, the presumption of innocence applies - as it does in Australia - then Corby should be freed if the prosecution cannot provide sufficient evidence to satisfy a judge that she is guilty. Despite persistent claims that Indonesian law presumes guilt, the fact is it does not. Indonesian law places the burden of proof on the prosecution and provides for a presumption of innocence similar to that which applies in Australia.

Article 8 of the Indonesian Judiciary Law and Article 18 of the Indonesian Human Rights Law state that every person who is arrested, detained, charged or brought before a court has the right to be considered innocent until proven guilty. Article 66 of the Indonesian Code of Criminal Procedure likewise provides that “the obligation of proof is not to be imposed upon the accused or defendant”.

Another furphy is the assumption that because Indonesia does not have juries, trials are inherently unfair. The absence of juries is a feature of the European-derived Civil Law tradition, which is followed by most countries, including Indonesia.

The common law jury system - followed by former British colonies like Australia - is less prevalent, and even in Australia most criminal matters are dealt with at the District (magistrate’s) Court level, where most defendants waive their right to a jury.

More recently Tim Lindsay noted,

The Indonesian system has enshrined the presumption of innocence in legislation as a human right, but once a prima facie case is established - that is, the minimum required to establish the elements of the charge - the burden effectively shifts to the defence to counter the prosecution case. This is true of almost all legal systems, including, in most cases, our own. Corby’s main problem was that her defence team did not rise well to the challenge of countering the prima facie prosecution case by proving her baggage-handler hypothesis.

The issues of incompetence and corruption have also been raised. The question of incompetence goes to why the transparent bag was not fingerprinted and why the contents were not laboratory tested. The short answer to both is probably the strength of the prima facie case and the level of resources available to Indonesian customs and police. While these tests may have been applied in Australia, it is difficult to see how (for example) the absence of Schapelle’s fingerprints would have proved her innocence. All that would have been argued by the defence is that she used rubber gloves to pack the bag.

On corruption, Sian Powell noted,

Indonesia is notoriously corrupt, routinely languishing at the bottom of international corruption indexes. The judicial system, too, undoubtedly has rotten elements, especially in connection with large civil cases. But no charges of corruption have been levelled against the three judges in Corby’s case, who have listened gravely and courteously to all the witnesses and allowed the defence to submit last-minute documents.

It is reasonable, therefore, to conclude that an Australian court may well have found Schapelle guilty if it had the same evidence before it. (This is not to say that Schapelle is necessarily guilty in fact, or that a stronger defence team may have secured a different outcome). The final issue that remains is her sentence.

The penalty
Like most Australians I found the size of the penalty surprising, particularly given the prevalence of marijuana use in Australia. The 2001 National Drug Strategy Household Survey found,

In 2001, marijuana/cannabis was the most commonly used illicit drug in Australia: over 5 million Australians aged 14 years and over had used this drug in their lifetime.

About one-third (33.1%) of the population aged 14 years and over had used marijuana/cannabis in their lifetime:

  • Males (15.8%) were more likely than females (10.0%) to have used marijuana/cannabis in the last 12 months.
  • Approximately 1.2 million people aged 14 years and over had used marijuana/cannabis in the last month. A higher proportion of males (10.3%) than females (5.3%) had used in the last month.
  • Almost 900,000 Australians aged 14 years and over had used marijuana/cannabis in the last week. Again, a higher proportion of males (7.6%) than females (3.7%) hadused in the last week.

However, the argument that the judges showed no mercy needs to be assessed in context. Schapelle did not receive the death penalty (which was possible), nor did she receive imprisonment for the term of her natural life (a point the defence team will appeal). Here Tim Lindsey said that Corby was fortunate not to get a life sentence.

There’s no question that this is a remarkably light sentence for what is in Indonesia a serious narcotics crime.

And I actually think we will probably hear a lot of protest from the Indonesian anti-narcotics movement … it’s not a light sentence in Australia but it’s a light sentence for Indonesia and indeed the ASEAN region all of which maintain the death penalty.

To use Australian parlance, Corby got the Indonesian equivalent of a slap on the wrist. As has been noted in the last 24 hours, an appeal by Corby risks a heavier sentence — either the death penalty or life imprisonment.

Ultimately, while I disagree with the scale of the penalty, I also must accept Indonesia’s sovereignty, and its right to set punishments to fit crimes as they see them. The old aphorism applies, ‘when Australians go abroad they are subject to the justice system of the countries they visit’.

Conclusion
I am agnostic on the question of Schapelle’s guilt. I have not seen anything that compels me to believe her story (or at least give her the benefit of the doubt). It is likely that courts in Australia would have come to the same conclusion on the evidence presented. It is a moot point whether a stronger defence legal team would have secured a different outcome in Indonesia (or Australia for that matter). While I think the penalty excessive, I respect Indonesia’s right to impose the penalty it thinks appropriate.

Update: Nic White has a good piece on Schapelle-mania.

Update 2: The Australian on 1 June 2005 had three good artciles on Schapelle-mania from Paul Kelly, Emma Tom and Janet Albrechtsen.

Update 3: Ken Parish at Troppo has gone over the ground again.

Morgan: 50.5 to 49.5 in Labor’s favour

Bryan · Saturday 21 May 2005 · 7:00 am

Morgan normally polls every weekend and publishes a combined result every second weekend. The latest Morgan poll is only for the weekend immediately following the Federal budget.

The headline result was a predicted two-party preferred vote for Labor of 50.5 per cent (down 1.5), and for the Coalition a vote of 49.5 per cent (up 1.5). While these movements look large, they are not statistically significant. They may simply reflect the usual volatility in this data stream, rather than a movement in population voting intentions.

The predicted primary votes (with movements from the last Morgan poll in brackets) are as follows:

  • The Coalition — 43 per cent (up 1)
  • Labor — 41 per cent (down 1.5)
  • Greens — 8 per cent (unchanged)
  • Australian Democrats — 1.5% (unchanged)
  • Family First — 2% (up 0.5%)
  • One Nation — 0.5% (down 0.5%)
  • Other Parties and Independent Candidates — 4% (up 0.5%)

According to the pollster,

“The first Morgan Poll taken after the 2005/2006 Federal Budget shows an increase in primary support for the L-NP. On a ‘two-party’ preferred basis the vote would be too close to call, however support for the L-NP has increased, indicating a positive response toward the Budget.”

I have added a new graph to my usual collection based on the Morgan poll question, ‘Regardless of who you’d like to win, who do you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?’ While it might be nothing more than noise, I thought the trend line from the last three polls looked a little ominous for Labor.

Morgan: Who do you think will win the next election?

The other thing of note is the growing gap between how the non-Labor-non-Coalition voters say they will distribute their preferences and the distribution of preferences at the last election. We have also seen the same gap with ACNielsen.

Morgan: Two-party preferred vote for the Coalition

All of the updated poll graphs can be seen here. When you get there, you may need to hit the refresh button on your browser to see the latest charts.

Poverty rates by electorate

Bryan · Friday 20 May 2005 · 7:42 am

The Parliamentary Library has just released a research note on poverty rates by electorate.

When I first saw the link I thought to myself, let’s do an ecological analysis of the 2004 election results. Alas, the data turned out to be based on the 2001 electorates.

I skipped the text and went straight to the map. As I looked at the map I thought to myself, I do not believe it. The remote electorates with large Indigenous populations had fewer people living below the poverty line than many regional electorates.

It was time to read the text.

Based on a definition of poverty that is described below, 9.3 per cent of all Australians are living in poverty. The poverty rate varies widely between electorates, from 2.1 per cent in Bradfield (NSW) to 15.1 per cent in Braddon (Tas).

The poverty rate estimates in this Research Note have been derived from experimental estimates of poverty by postal area, compiled by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM). While the estimates are the most accurate available at this stage, they should be regarded as indicative only.

Methodology and Definitions

NATSEM has produced estimates of poverty at a detailed regional level by combining postcode information from the 1996 Census with income and demographic information from the 1998-99 Household Expenditure Survey (HES). Income data from the HES were then adjusted from 1998-99 to 2001 values, allowing NATSEM to estimate poverty rates for all postal areas in Australia for the year 2001. These estimates at the postal area level were then aggregated to electoral divisions by the Parliamentary Library for the purpose of this Research Note.

As there is no universally accepted measure of poverty, NATSEM has adopted a relative poverty definition in which persons are defined to be in poverty if they are living below some community standard. Here the standard is set at half the average disposable income for a household type, consisting of a couple with two children, with incomes adjusted using an equivalence scale to determine comparable poverty lines for other types of households. If a household’s disposable income is below the poverty line then all the members of that household are deemed to be in poverty.

Mmmm. I think I see the problem.

It looks like the researcher relied on income and demographic information from the 1998-99 Household Expenditure Survey (HES). But the scope and coverage of the HES does not extend to all Australians.

SCOPE

24. Only residents of private dwellings in Australia were in scope. Private dwellings were houses, flats, home units, caravans, garages, tents and other structures that were used as places of residence at the time of interview. These were distinct from special dwellings which included hotels, boarding houses and institutions. Residents of special dwellings were excluded because of differences in their lifestyle and accommodation. Also excluded were households containing foreign defence force staff, foreign diplomats or diplomatic staff.

COVERAGE

25. Information was collected from usual residents of private dwellings in all areas of Australia except remote and sparsely settled areas, where:

  • usual residents were residents who regarded the dwelling as their own or main home. Others present were considered to be visitors and were not asked to participate in the survey.
  • remote and sparsely settled areas were areas in which there were less than 0.06 dwellings per square kilometre.

The HES excluded remote locations and it excluded the really poor who typically do not live in private dwellings. At a guess, a large slice would have been excised from the electorates of Kalgoorlie, Lingiari, Leichhardt, and Kennedy. All of which performed better according to the research note than I would have predicted.

I also wondered whether the treatment of multi-family households affected the analysis. There are a significant proportion of multi-family households in remote locations.

My conclusion: while the analysis in this latest research note may be robust for the urban and regional electorates, I have my doubts about the remote electorates.

Also, I think I will pass on the ecological analysis. (After being picky about someone else’s work I don’t want to be accused of falling for the ecological fallacy).