Northern Territory Election 2005
Some time between now and late September 2005, the Chief Minister for the Northern Territory will advise the Administrator to call a general election for the Legislative Assembly.
Under the Northern Territory (Self Government) Act 1978, an election must be held within four years of the first meeting of a Legislative Assembly. Hence, the last possible date for an election is 15 October 2005. The NT Electoral Act 2004 provides for a short campaign period: an election must be held 18 days after the writ has been issued.
The NT Legislative Assembly has 25 single member electorates, and members are selected using preferential voting. The electorates are quite small, with around 4500 voters each. The election will be managed by the newly created NT Electoral Commission. An overview of the electoral arrangements can be found here.
In the current Legislative Assembly, Territory Labor holds 13 of the 25 seats - a bare majority. The Country Liberal Party holds 10, and there are two independents.
There has been a redistribution since the 18 August 2001 territory election, so it is not possible to provide an accurate pendulum for the 2005 election. Nonetheless, my approximation of the 2001 pendulum follows (derived from this data). Seats that have subsequently been affected by a redistribution are asterisked. The seats the CLP lost in 2001 are indicated with a plus sign. It should be noted that a by-election for Kathrine was held on 4 October 2003.
| Seat | Indicative location | Party | Decided on primary or preference votes |
Majority |
| Drysdale * | North and East of Darwin City | CLP | Primary | 65.4% |
| Blain | South-east Darwin City | CLP | Primary | 64.0% |
| Brennan * | South-east Darwin City | CLP | Primary | 63.1% |
| Goyder * | Darwin hinterland | CLP | Primary | 57.7% |
| Daly * | Katherine district (but excludes Katherine), Wadeye | CLP | Primary | 57.2% |
| Katherine * | Katherine | CLP | Primary | 52.2% |
| MacDonnell | Southern NT | CLP | Primary | 52.1% |
| Greatorex * | East side of Alice Springs | CLP | Primary | 51.1% |
| Port Darwin * | Darwin City | CLP | Preferences | 56.9% |
| Braitling * + | North-West of Alice Springs | Ind. | Preferences | 55.5% |
| Nelson * + | East of Darwin electorates | Ind. | Preferences | 52.7% |
| Araluen | West side of Alice Springs | CLP | Preferences | 52.0% |
| Millner + | North of Darwin City | Labor | Preferences | 51.2% |
| Johnston | North of Darwin City | Labor | Preferences | 52.9% |
| Sanderson + | North of Darwin City | Labor | Preferences | 53.0% |
| Casuarina + | North of Darwin City | Labor | Preferences | 53.5% |
| Arafura | Melville Island/Jabiru | Labor | Preferences | 61.5% |
| Nightcliff + | North of Darwin City | Labor | Primary | 51.9% |
| Karama + | North of Darwin City | Labor | Primary | 53.7% |
| Nhulunbuy | Nhulunbuy | Labor | Primary | 54.9% |
| Wanguri | North of Darwin City | Labor | Primary | 55.3% |
| Arnhem | Top NE corner of the NT, excludes Nhulunbuy | Labor | Primary | 55.9% |
| Barkly * | Tennant Creek and east | Labor | Primary | 56.4% |
| Fannie Bay * | North of Darwin City | Labor | Primary | 58.4% |
| Stuart * | North-West of Alice Springs | Labor | Primary | 71.3% |
The clear message for Labor is that this election will be won or lost in the northern suburbs of Darwin. For insurance, Labor would also be looking to take Araluen, MacDonnell, Nelson, Katherine, Braitling and Port Darwin.
It will also be interesting to see whether the redistribution of voters from Port Darwin to Fannie Bay has any impact on the Chief Minister’s seat. (Somehow, I suspect not).
Update 26 April 2005: According to the NT News, Labor has taken out a 3 month lease on a campaign office in Darwin City for the 2005 election. Could the NT election be just around the corner?
Update 27 April 2005: scuttlebutt has it that the NT election could be called as early as either Tuesday 3 or 10 May - with the hot money on 10 May. These dates would see an election on either Saturday 21 or 28 May (18 days after the writs are issued). A funny artefact of the NT electoral legislation is that elections are called on Tuesdays.
Update 12 May 2005: gossip schmossip — while the scuttlebutt was misleading, the pundits are still tipping an election before 30 June.
Update 13 May 2005: Just noticed that Antony Green has an NT election site.
Update 31 May 2005: Received an email from the Poll Bludger, who now has an NT election site.
Update 31 May 2005: It’s on! - link to my next post on the NT 2005 election.