Newspoll: it was a blip
The Australian (also here) has the latest Newspoll results from last weekend. The full set of statistics should be available on the Newspoll website later today.
Those who follow this site closely would know there has been some volatility in the opinion polls lately. Both Morgan and ACNielsen have produced a recent poll favourable to Labor, although Morgan’s most recent poll saw a return to the post 2004 election status quo. The question we have pondered is whether the two pro-Labor polls from early March 2005 were the beginning of a trend or just random noise.
Today’s Newspoll suggests the latter interpretation is correct. It increasingly looks like those two polls from early March were blips in an otherwise unchanged pro-Coalition electoral mood since the 2004 general election.
The headline statistics for last weekend are:
- The two party preferred voting intention was 54 per cent to 46 per cent favouring the Coalition over Labor. (The Coalition is up two points from the previous Newspoll)
- The Coalition’s primary vote was 47 per cent (up two points)
- Labor’s primary vote was 36 per cent (down one point)
- Fifty-four per cent preferred John Howard as Prime Minister (level) and 30 per cent preferred Kim Beazley (down one point)
- Satisfaction with the Prime Minister’s performance was at 57 per cent (level)
- Satisfaction with Kim Beazley’s performance was at 49 per cent (up four points)
Note: While this poll suggests a slight movement in opinion towards the Coalition, this is likely to be random noise in the opinion polls. I would want to see a couple of other polls bounce in the same direction before I was convinced there was a genuine movement to the Coalition in public opinion.
Check out my opinion poll charts (you may need to hit the refresh button on your browser to get the latest charts).