Oz Politics Blog

Ho hum. The votes from polling booths are almost counted. Although the AEC has not counted postal and pre-poll votes, it looks like Labor will win with an increased primary vote over Mark Latham’s in the 2004 election. No surprises there. My (pre-election) assessment was that it was at least even money that Hayes would do better than Latham. And as it is almost certain Hayes will get more than 50 per cent of the primary vote, there is no need to count preferences.

But the primary vote for some of the other candidates was a little unexpected.

My tip for second place in the primary vote was James Young. He came second, but with around 8 per cent of the vote his performance was much poorer than I anticipated. In the 2004 election the Liberal candidate got 35.11 per cent. As the quasi-Liberal in the by-election, I thought Young would get at least half that. It is entirely possible that the final two-party preferred result (if it gets counted) may not have Young on the other side of the ledger as the AEC (and I) anticipated.

Another surprise (for me at least) was the Christian candidates. At the 2004 election there were no Christian candidates in Werriwa, although Tan ran in 2001 and got 2.46 per cent of the vote. This time they have managed more than eight per cent between them.

More surprising was the Pentecostal aligned Family First candidate, Sykes, appears to have whipped the mainstream protestant aligned Fred Nile Group candidate, Tan. In the 2004 Senate election for NSW, the Fred Nile Group beat Family First 2.38 per cent to 0.56 per cent in the seat of Werriwa. It looks like Sykes will get his money back but Tan will not. [Note: candidates who score more than 4 per cent of the primary vote get their $350 nomination deposit back and (if the 2004 rate has not yet been indexed) $1.94397 for every primary vote they receive.]

Crikey had tipped Deborah Locke to be the candidate to run through the middle of the pack. But with less than four per cent of the primary vote she is not going to get her money back. (I was actually a little surprised when Crikey anointed Locke, I considered her an unlikely outcome).

Australians Against Further Immigration (AAFI) also benefited from the leaked Liberal vote (not to mention the donkey vote). Like the Christians, AAFI was absent in 2004. Janey Woodger contested Werriwa in 2001 and got 1.76 per cent of the vote. This time she should score more than four per cent, enough to get her money back.

Another who might get his money back (if postal and pre-poll votes go his way) with an initial count primary vote just under four per cent is Joe Bryant.

Even the One Nation candidate, Charles Doggett, has seen his primary vote increase by around one percentage point from a base of 2.36 per cent in 2004.

Last time donkey vote beneficiary, Sam Bargshoon, has suffered a reversal of fortune. His primary vote is down from almost five percent in 2004 to around one per cent in 2005. May be there is a donkey vote lesson here for AAFI. Bargshoon’s hospitalisation in the last week may also have been a factor.

But not everything was a surprise.

More predictable was the performance of the 19 year old Greens candidate, Ben Raue, who got under 6 per cent of the vote. In the 2004 election he got 3.13 per cent. At one point some were spruiking a 15 per cent primary vote for Raue. But Werriwa is traditional Labor. It is not the (small-l) liberal, middle-class Labor of Cunningham. And it is definitely not the latte-left Labor of inner-Sydney or inner-Melbourne.

Local radio comedian Mal Lees got a respectable two per cent of the primary vote. Not a bad performance for a joke candidature.

Ex-Labor, and now prospective Liberal, candidate 23 year-old Ned Mannoun should be happy with a vote of almost two per cent.

The Progressive Labour Party’s Pat McGookin scored just a touch under one per cent.

Mike Head from the Socialist Equality Party got much the same result as last year — less than one per cent.

Another who got much the same as last year was Robert Vogler (albeit last time he ran in Wentworth and last time he had the donkey vote position in that seat).

I think Mr Aussie-Stone has just chalked up his 17th Federal election loss and he did not even crack one per cent of the primary vote. Sometimes experience is not enough! No surprises there either.

Update: Others with post poll analysis include the Poll bludger, AusPolitics.Net and Andrew Bartlett.