I lost the authorising image thing when I upgraded WordPress to version 1.5, and now that poker crew are at it again: Ten posts with links to their online casino.
I have introduced sudden death moderation. These three words will kill your post stone cold dead: poker, holdem, and hold’em. You will just have to be creative and write comments without these words. I know it is difficult, but you can do it.
According to yesterday’s SMH, the Liberals will not be contesting the seat of Werriwa.
The state executive of the NSW Liberal Party decided at a meeting not to contest the by-election prompted by Mr Latham’s resignation due to illness in January.
NSW Liberal state president Chris McDiven said the decision was made after careful consideration and consultation.
“The party has consulted widely with the local community, party members and the federal and state parliamentary wings,” Mr McDiven said in a statement.
As the Greens have gone for a greenhorn, Labor only needs to worry about a high profile independent. This race is starting to look over before it begins.
Morgan’s latest poll is out today. Have a look at my updated graphs. It is an absolute dead cat bounce for Beazley – pretty much a flat line since the 2004 Federal election. Here is the spin form Morgan:
In early February, primary support for the L-NP Coalition was unchanged at 45%, 1.4% below the result obtained by the L-NP at the recent Federal election. Support for the ALP dropped by 0.5% to 37.5% - 0.1% below the ALP result at the Federal election.
If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP - 60.5%, L-NP - 39.5%) the two-party preferred vote would be L-NP -52%, ALP - 48%. Had an election been held in early February, the Coalition would have been returned with a slightly decreased majority, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
As I predicted earlier, we are not seeing a significant Latham to Beazley bounce. But then again …
This is a second time love affair. Beazley is pretty much a known quantity. We have been down this path before. Unlike Latham, this will not be the rough and rapturous passion of a new lover. There is no mystery; no midnight trysts with the new and unknown. Beazley’s best hope is to slowly build a solid lead in the polls over the long term. Think of a strong and growing marriage between a middle aged couple, not teenage hormones.
For both Howard and Beazley a week can be a long time in politics, and there are plenty of weeks before the next election.
The Centrebet odds at the moment are $1.38 for Labor and $2.80 for the Coalition: win probabilities of 67 and 33 per cent. Unchanged from yesterday.
Update: the odds are unchanged at 10am on Sunday 20 February 2005, and at 8:30am on Monday 21 February 2005.
The latest blurb from Gerard Daffy at Centrebet (dated 18 February) …
The Western Australian election will be held this coming Saturday, and while the polls still have the Coalition either ahead of neck and neck with Labor, we see it differently.
Labor continue to have a stranglehold on favourtism at $1.50 a place they have occupied for nearly two weeks. While many have said that the proposed canal from the Kimberley to Perth is a fantastic idea, the idea put forward by Coalition leader Colin Barnett hasn’t impressed punters who have backed Labor from $2.30 into as short as $1.40.
Over $100,000 has been wagered on the WA election, with a lot more expected to come in before people head to the polls on Saturday. At the current prices ($1.50 Labor, $2.40 Coalition) we are seeing money come in both ways, with some of the bigger bets this week including $6000 and $5000 for Labor, and bets of $2000 and two of $1000 for the Opposition. The power black outs in WA this week seem to have had a significant bearing on the policies of both parties this week, and have also been the catalyst for a wave of smaller bets coming through for the Coalition.
This will be a really good test for what we have labeled the ‘punters poll’ as the betting has been completely different to what every political expert, and the polls have said, and that is that the Coalition will win!
This post is dedicated to the candidates in the Werriwa by-election. I will update it with the names of candidates and links to their websites as I become aware of them (hint: email me).
Candidates:
Alleged Candidates (people whose candidacy I have not been able to confirm through media reports):
Note: the Liberal Party will not be contesting the seat.
Update 25 February 2005: Full list of candidates here.