Oz Politics Blog

Morgan’s latest poll is out today. Have a look at my updated graphs. It is an absolute dead cat bounce for Beazley – pretty much a flat line since the 2004 Federal election. Here is the spin form Morgan:

In early February, primary support for the L-NP Coalition was unchanged at 45%, 1.4% below the result obtained by the L-NP at the recent Federal election. Support for the ALP dropped by 0.5% to 37.5% - 0.1% below the ALP result at the Federal election.

If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP - 60.5%, L-NP - 39.5%) the two-party preferred vote would be L-NP -52%, ALP - 48%. Had an election been held in early February, the Coalition would have been returned with a slightly decreased majority, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

As I predicted earlier, we are not seeing a significant Latham to Beazley bounce. But then again …

This is a second time love affair. Beazley is pretty much a known quantity. We have been down this path before. Unlike Latham, this will not be the rough and rapturous passion of a new lover. There is no mystery; no midnight trysts with the new and unknown. Beazley’s best hope is to slowly build a solid lead in the polls over the long term. Think of a strong and growing marriage between a middle aged couple, not teenage hormones.

For both Howard and Beazley a week can be a long time in politics, and there are plenty of weeks before the next election.