Oz Politics Blog

First some history. In 2001, Stephen Martin won the safe Wollongong seat of Cunningham with a sizeable two-party preferred margin: Labor 60.7 per cent to the Coalition’s 39.3 per cent. Seats do not get much safer than this. A year later, Stephen Martin retired from Parliament and a by-election was held on 19 October 2002. The Coalition did not contest the election and it was won by the Green’s candidate Michael Organ with a two-party preferred result of Greens 52.2 per cent to Labor’s 47.8 per cent.

Roll forward to 2005 and the seat of Werriwa. Mark Latham has just won the seat for Labor with a sizeable two-party preferred margin almost identical to that of Stephen Martin in 2001: Labor 59.3 per cent to the Coalition’s 40.7 per cent. Unfortunately for him, Latham got sick and decided to retire from Parliament. A by-election for Werriwa is pending.

It was then that things got interesting. First the Labor party released internal polling showing that the Liberals could win the seat of Werriwa (see earlier blog entries here and here). A strange move, and while I did not discern the hidden agenda at the time, it was obvious there was an agenda.

Then Kim Beazley made this pronouncement (sourced from ABC Online).

Federal Opposition Leader Kim Beazley has criticised the Liberal Party for not yet declaring whether it will contest the by-election for the western Sydney seat of Werriwa.

Labor has pre-selected its candidate for the by-election, which was brought about by Mark Latham’s resignation from politics.

Mr Beazley has told Channel Ten that Mr Latham needs to recover from his illness and he will not put any pressure on the former leader to help Labor’s campaign to retain the seat.

He says if the Liberals cared for the people of western Sydney they would contest the by-election.

“That is one of the great regions of Australia, the western Sydney region, one of the great engines of the Australian economy, one of the great battlegrounds of the political context, and they want to desert the battlefield in a by-election,” he said.

“I haven’t got much time for them if that’s what they’re doing.”

The hidden agenda is now clear. First the carrot, then the stick. Labor is trying everything to convince the Liberals to run in the by-election. Labor knows it can defeat the Liberals easily. But as Cunningham showed, fighting the Greens without the Liberals might be a whole lot tougher.

It will be interesting to see how the Liberals play this one.