WA Election 2005: betting market shortens for the Coalition
I have been avoiding the WA election. I find its system where rural votes are worth two to three times urban votes just a little hard to get my head around. It also makes it hard to project opinion poll results into election outcomes. [Anyway, Antony Green and the pollbludger are doing a great job at covering this one].
The betting market is the other good predictor of election outcomes. Up until today the betting market at Centrebet had the odds at $1.85 each way. That is a win probability of 50% for both the Coalition and Labor.
Today the odds have the Coalition paying $1.60 for a win and Labor paying $2.20. That translates to a win probability of 58% for the Coalition and 42% for Labor.