Oz Politics Blog

Today’s Oz has the Newspoll results from last weekend.

John Howard now has his biggest lead over Mr Latham as preferred prime minister - 60 per cent to 25 per cent - and for the first time more voters are dissatisfied with the Opposition Leader than satisfied - 46 per cent to 38 per cent.

Labor’s primary vote has slumped from 38 per cent two weeks ago to just 33 per cent - the lowest since the middle of last year under Simon Crean.

On a two-party-preferred basis, the Coalition’s lead lifted to 55 per cent, against Labor’s 45 per cent.

The Coalition’s primary vote at the election was 46.7 per cent, compared with Labor’s 37.6 per cent, and the two-party-preferred difference was 52.8 to 47.2 per cent.

The conventional wisdom is that you need a primary vote above 40 per cent to win government. At 33 per cent, Latham’s leadership is looking close to terminal. He may enjoy Christmas in the job. However without a yuletide miracle, rumours of a February reassessment within caucus cannot be dismissed.

Last Thursday I was challenged to name a field of three for the post-Latham Labor leadership. I can only see one seriously electable candidate: Kevin Rudd. I was pushed to name another two and responded with Stephen Smith and Kim Beazley. Yet, I do not believe either has a snow flake’s chance in hell of beating the incumbent. (As for Wayne Swan, he might as well change his surname to King).

It looks like I am not Robinson Crusoe. Those unlikely bedfellows Phillip Adams and Greg Sheridan agree with me on Rudd.