12 seats to defeat, 16 seats to victory
Over at the mother ship I have just put up an electoral pendulum for the 2007 Federal election.
There are some key messages:
- If the Coalition lost 12 seats, it would lose its (absolute) majority in the House of Representatives.
- If Labor wins 16 seats it would have an absolute majority.
- Labor needs a uniform swing of around 5 per cent to win government.
- The Prime Minister’s seat of Bennelong is now in the marginal range.