House of Representatives round up
On Tuesday we identified a dearth of predictive talent for the Senate. Today we consider the question: How did the pundits perform with the House of Representatives? But before we consider the pundits, lets reacquaint ourselves with the result.
| Coalition | Labor | Green | Independent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Notional) Old: | 83 | 63 | 1 | 3 |
| New: | 87 | 60 | 0 | 3 |
The champion’s ribbon goes to Peter Brent, the host of Mumble election site. Peter nailed it on 6 October 2004. Well done!
My own performance was not on the mark, but better than most commentators.
| Coalition | Labor | Green | Independent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | 83 | 64 | 0 | 3 |
William Bowe (aka the pollbludger) did just a touch worse than me.
| Coalition | Labor | Green | Independent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | 79 | 68 | 0 | 3 |
Charles Richardson at Crikey did a touch worse still.
| Coalition | Labor | Green | Independent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | 77 | 70 | 0 | 3 |
And then we come to some of the funnier predictions.
Almost all of the pundits at inside politics got it wrong. Most predicted a swing against the government, not a swing to the government.
Green/Labor by 14 - Sven
ALP by 25 - Tropic
ALP by 22 - astronaut
ALP by 18 - Tobe
ALP by 17 - aus_guy_76
ALP by 15 - ryttu3k
ALP by 13 - ITTG
ALP by 12 - Arwon
ALP by 10 - Millenial
ALP by 9 - Phoenix, mr_climbatize
ALP by 8 - Biff, the Farmer
ALP by 7 - Terje
ALP by 6 with 1 GRN - hugorune
ALP by 6 - AF
ALP by 5 - Botany Whig, DeVoy, Barcarised
ALP by 5 with no clear majority (4 INDs and a GRN) - Wook
ALP by 4 - Daviel X
Hung Parliament (ALP by 1 with 3 INDs and a GRN) - Sunbert
Hung Parliament (ALP by 1 with 3 INDs) - Nudge
Hung Parliament (Coalition by 2 with 3 INDs) - Tulmurius
Coalition by 3 - NathMelb
Coalition by 4 - winston, rosco
Coalition by 5 - MrM
Coalition by 6 - Oswald
Coalition by 7 - Wik, Grug
Coalition by 8 - Ignoramus Maximus, commonwombat
Coalition by 9 - TheRealDeal
Coalition by 12 - dibo, Morgan North
Coalition by 10 - Spydy
Coalition by 15 - Tamazoid, Jimoin
Coalition by 18 - what4
Coalition by 38 - Kewpid
“What4″ was the closest to the Coalition by 27 seats.
Margo Kingston also sponsored an election tipping competition. Again, the winner was an outlier in the spread of tips, and almost all predicted either a Labor win, a significantly reduced Liberal majority win, or a hung parliament.
Perhaps the most unusual prediction goes to Ed Tamplin, an election astrologer. He wrote in September 2004,
The election doesn’t look like ending on October 9 2004. Australia could well be left with a government who cannot effectively govern due to a loss of power in the Senate, and/or an insufficient majority in the House of Representatives. Howard also has to contend with an eclipse pattern that has repeatedly seen Australian leaders taken from office, along with the fact that his own political career has now traversed a complete Saturn cycle. Even his deputy is biting at his heels. Win or lose, it seems to be the end of the road for John Howard, whose rise, fall and rise to power has left astrologers with a whole new take on Pluto. Borrowing Howard’s own self-description, Sun/Pluto is now unequivocally “Lazarus with a triple bypass”.
In summary, as with the Senate, few anticipated the scale of the Coalition win.