Senate round up

Bryan · Tuesday 2 November 2004 · 7:22 am

With the exception of Victoria, the Australian Electoral Commission has finished the Senate counting. The results (post 1 July 2005) look like:

  Coalition Labor Greens Family First Democrats
NSW 3 3 0 0 0
Vic 3 2 0 1 0
Qld 4 2 0 0 0
SA 3 3 0 0 0
WA 3 2 1 0 0
Tas 3 2 1 0 0
ACT 1 1 0 0 0
NT 1 1 0 0 0
Newly elected 21 16 2 1 0
Continuing 18 12 2 0 4
Total 39 28 4 1 4

So how did the pundits perform?

My performance was poor. My first prediction, assuming the Coalition got a majority in the House, was (plus or minus two for the Coalition, Labor and the Greens)

  Coalition Labor Greens Family First Democrats
Total 37 29 6 0 4

So not exactly what I predicted, but within the error margins I gave myself. However, my second prediction, made once the voting tickets had been published, was off the mark. I underestimated the Coalition’s performance and overestimated the Greens.

  Coalition Labor Greens Family First Democrats
Range 32-38 26-30 4-9 0-3 4
Likely total 37 29 5 1 4

Malcolm Mackerras performed much the same as I did.

  Coalition Labor Greens Family First Democrats
Total 37 29 5 1 4

Charles Richardson from Crikey performed even poorer.

  Coalition Labor Greens Family First Democrats Ind.
Total 35 26 8 2 4 1

You would have to say no-one anticipated the scale of the Coalition victory in the Senate.

Election 2004 ·