Phone poll trend
Another trend. This time I have averaged the latest ACNielsen, Galaxy and Newspoll phone polls each week. I have then applied a 13 term Henderson filter to get rid of the lumps and bumps in the series.
If we project the phone poll trend out until the election date, it looks like a national two party preferred vote of (around) 54 per cent for Labor. Drop that guesstimate into Antony’s calculator, and we get a prediction of 87 seats for Labor.