Newspoll: 59 to 41 in Labor’s favour
The Australian has the latest Newspoll result. According to the Australian, “KEVIN Rudd has steered Labor further ahead of the Coalition, extending support for the alternative government to a crushing 59 to 41 per cent.”
Regulars here will know that I am almost always sceptical about unexplained sudden poll movements. This latest Newspoll is no exception. I suspect this poll is an outlier (although there is a little doubt as the most recent Galaxy poll was in similar territory at 57 to 43).
No matter how you spin this poll, it is not the sort of number the Coalition would like to see this close to an election. If taken at face value, the election calculator suggests it translates into Labor winning almost 120 of the 150 seats. Tabloid headlines aside, the main polls have all had significant volatility spikes over the past month. What is more difficult to discern is what this volatility means (and particularly, whether it suggests any softness in either Rudd or Howard’s support).
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