Monthly aggregated polling
I have not produced an aggregated poll report since March. This latest look at the monthly aggregations is revealing.
It appears that Labor reached its peak in March, with 50.1 per cent of the primary vote and 60.0 per cent of the two party preferred vote. The Coalition’s primary vote reached its nadir in March: 34.9 per cent.
Since March, the Coalition has regained some ground in its primary vote. In May it was 37.2 per cent. But this has been largely at the expense of the Greens and the other minor parties.
What should be worrying for the Coalition is the resilience of Labor’s primary vote. From its March peak of 50.1 per cent it has fallen to 49.7 per cent. That is a negligible fall of 0.2 per cent per month.
The trend in the two-party preferred vote share reflects both the modest gains the Coalition has made in its primary vote and the resilience of Labor’s primary vote. From a nadir of 40.0 per cent in March, the Coalition’s two-party preferred vote share has climbed to 41.8 per cent. If it continued to climb at this rate — ie. 0.9 percentage points per month — it would reach 47.2 per cent in time for a hypothetical mid-November election. According to the election calculator, if the Coalition secured 47.2 per cent of the TPP vote, Labor would win the 2007 election with around 83 seats.
However, the Coalition’s TPP vote share can only continue to climb at 0.9 per cent per month if the Coalition becomes more effective at eating into Labor’s primary vote share. Otherwise the Coalition’s TPP vote share will plateau and Labor will win the election in a landslide.
In summary, Kevin Rudd increased Labor’s primary vote by 10 percentage points and so far he has managed to keep them. He moved the TPP vote eight points, but that has since moved back by just under two points. And, he moved the Coalition primary vote by six points, which has since returned by a little over two points.
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